Crook G M, West M E, Oei T P
Alcohol, Tobacco and Other Drug Services, Queensland Health, Brisbane, Australia.
Aust N Z J Psychiatry. 1998 Aug;32(4):504-10. doi: 10.3109/00048679809068324.
This study developed and compared separate estimates of the number of heavy drinkers (the in-need population for alcohol treatment interventions) across eight local regions in Queensland.
Estimates were based on: (i) a self-report population survey of alcohol consumption; and (ii) an application of the Ledermann log-normal distribution of consumption model to liquor sale figures.
Estimates based on the 1989-1990 National Health Survey (NHS) data indicated that 10.98% (n = 83,880) of adult male drinkers and 1.25% (n = 6581) of adult female drinkers in Queensland (total = 90,461) were on average drinking the equivalent of six or more standard drinks a day in the week prior to the survey (4.74% of Queensland adult drinkers, n = 90,461). Estimates based on the Ledermann model indicated that 12.18% of adult Queensland drinkers (n = 232,283) were drinking six or more standard drinks a day. Estimates based on the Ledermann model were 157% larger than estimates based on NHS data (i.e. a difference of 141,821 heavy drinkers), with large variations in the two estimates across local regions.
The NHS data appears to underestimate the population of heavy drinkers, whereas the Ledermann model overestimates it. In this situation, it seems preferable to use the more conservative self-report survey estimates.
本研究针对昆士兰州的八个地区，分别制定并比较了重度饮酒者（酒精治疗干预的需求人群）数量的估计值。
估计值基于：（i）一项关于酒精消费的自我报告式人口调查；以及（ii）将消费的莱德曼对数正态分布模型应用于酒类销售数据。
基于1989 - 1990年全国健康调查（NHS）数据的估计表明，昆士兰州的成年男性饮酒者中有10.98%（n = 83,880），成年女性饮酒者中有1.25%（n = 6581）（总计90,461人）在调查前一周平均每天饮用相当于六杯或更多标准杯的酒（占昆士兰州成年饮酒者的4.74%，n = 90,461）。基于莱德曼模型的估计表明，昆士兰州成年饮酒者中有12.18%（n = 232,283）每天饮用六杯或更多标准杯的酒。基于莱德曼模型的估计值比基于NHS数据的估计值大157%（即重度饮酒者数量相差141,821人），两个估计值在各地区存在很大差异。
NHS数据似乎低估了重度饮酒者的数量，而莱德曼模型则高估了该数量。在这种情况下，使用更保守的自我报告调查估计值似乎更为可取。
