A comparison of estimates of the prevalence of heavy drinkers in local regions of Queensland.

OBJECTIVE

This study developed and compared separate estimates of the number of heavy drinkers (the in-need population for alcohol treatment interventions) across eight local regions in Queensland.

METHOD

Estimates were based on: (i) a self-report population survey of alcohol consumption; and (ii) an application of the Ledermann log-normal distribution of consumption model to liquor sale figures.

RESULTS

Estimates based on the 1989-1990 National Health Survey (NHS) data indicated that 10.98% (n = 83,880) of adult male drinkers and 1.25% (n = 6581) of adult female drinkers in Queensland (total = 90,461) were on average drinking the equivalent of six or more standard drinks a day in the week prior to the survey (4.74% of Queensland adult drinkers, n = 90,461). Estimates based on the Ledermann model indicated that 12.18% of adult Queensland drinkers (n = 232,283) were drinking six or more standard drinks a day. Estimates based on the Ledermann model were 157% larger than estimates based on NHS data (i.e. a difference of 141,821 heavy drinkers), with large variations in the two estimates across local regions.

CONCLUSION

The NHS data appears to underestimate the population of heavy drinkers, whereas the Ledermann model overestimates it. In this situation, it seems preferable to use the more conservative self-report survey estimates.