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[通过蒙特卡罗模拟,根据个人食物消费数据计算得出的改良饮食对环境污染物每日摄入量的影响]

[The effects of improved diets on the daily intake of environmental contaminants as calculated from personal food consumption data, by Monte Carlo simulation].

作者信息

Nishikawa H, Toyokawa H

机构信息

Department of Public Health, Toho University School of Medicine, Tokyo.

出版信息

Nihon Eiseigaku Zasshi. 1998 Jul;53(2):441-6. doi: 10.1265/jjh.53.441.

DOI:10.1265/jjh.53.441
PMID:9757761
Abstract

In a previous paper, we discussed the Estimated Ecological Daily Intake (EEDI), which is a new method for the estimating daily intake of environmental contaminants based on individual food consumption data. This method makes it possible to identify high-risk cases, using a Monte Carlo simulation for varying contamination levels in each food item and permits epidemiological assessment of the individual, rather than the population, intake of environmental contaminants. We attempted to identify those contaminants whose maximum dietary levels were most commonly exceeded. The results obtained were as follows: 1) After a 1,000-fold extrapolation, performed for each person and contaminant, some cases exceeded allowable maximums in dieldrin, lead, cadmium, and total mercury. In dieldrin and lead intake, few cases exceeded dieldrin and lead maximums by a factor of 2 or 3, but in the cases of cadmium and total mercury, individual maximum intake was significantly exceeded. 2) After estimating a high-risk individual's times of exceeding the allowance in cadmium intake with dietary improvement, we found a 10.5% excess intake after 40% improvement. Clearly, the issue of environmental contaminants exposure due to dietary intake is a significant one.

摘要

在之前的一篇论文中,我们讨论了估计生态每日摄入量(EEDI),这是一种基于个体食物消费数据来估计环境污染物每日摄入量的新方法。该方法能够通过对每种食物中不同污染水平进行蒙特卡罗模拟来识别高风险案例,并允许对个体而非人群摄入环境污染物的情况进行流行病学评估。我们试图确定那些其最大膳食水平最常被超过的污染物。得到的结果如下:1)在对每个人和每种污染物进行1000倍外推之后,一些案例中狄氏剂、铅、镉和总汞的摄入量超过了允许的最大值。在狄氏剂和铅的摄入方面,很少有案例超过狄氏剂和铅最大值的2倍或3倍,但在镉和总汞的案例中,个体最大摄入量被显著超过。2)在通过饮食改善估计高风险个体镉摄入量超过允许量的次数后,我们发现改善40%后仍有10.5%的过量摄入。显然,饮食摄入导致的环境污染物暴露问题是一个重大问题。

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