Speer P W, Gorman D M, Labouvie E W, Ontkush M J
School of Social Work, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ 08854-8045, USA.
J Public Health Policy. 1998;19(3):303-18.
The relationship between violent crime, neighborhood sociodemographic characteristics, and alcohol outlet densities in Newark, New Jersey is reported, thus extending previous research of municipalities at more refined levels of analysis. Alcohol outlet densities were significant predictors in regression models, but rates of violent crime were better predicted in larger units (R2 = .673 for the census tract level vs. .543 at the census block group level). Alcohol outlet densities, however, were more predictive of violent crime at smaller units of analysis (change in R2 with the addition of alcohol outlet densities was .194 at the census tract level vs. .278 at the census block group level). Findings suggest that alcohol outlets represent a form of "undesirable land use" in urban neighborhoods that are a manifestation of increasingly concentrated economic disadvantage in the United States.
本文报告了新泽西州纽瓦克市暴力犯罪、邻里社会人口特征与酒类销售点密度之间的关系，从而在更精细的分析层面上扩展了以往对城市的研究。在回归模型中，酒类销售点密度是显著的预测指标，但在较大的单元中，暴力犯罪率的预测效果更好（普查区层面的R2 = 0.673，而普查街区组层面为0.543）。然而，在较小的分析单元中，酒类销售点密度对暴力犯罪的预测性更强（在普查区层面，加入酒类销售点密度后R2的变化为0.194，而在普查街区组层面为0.278）。研究结果表明，酒类销售点是城市社区中一种“不良土地利用”形式，是美国经济劣势日益集中的一种表现。
