用于检测波多黎各登革热疫情的偏差条形图。
A deviation bar chart for detecting dengue outbreaks in Puerto Rico.
作者信息
Rigau-Pérez J G, Millard P S, Walker D R, Deseda C C, Casta-Vélez A
机构信息
Dengue Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Ga., USA.
出版信息
Am J Public Health. 1999 Mar;89(3):374-8. doi: 10.2105/ajph.89.3.374.
OBJECTIVES
A Centers for Disease Control and Prevention deviation bar chart (Statistical Software for Public Health Surveillance) and laboratory-based surveillance data were evaluated for their utility in detecting dengue outbreaks in Puerto Rico.
METHODS
A significant increase in dengue incidence was defined as an excess of suspected cases of more than 2 SDs beyond the mean for all 4-week periods from April through June (the period of lowest seasonal incidence), 1989 through 1993. An outbreak was defined as a cumulative annual rate of reported dengue greater than 3 per 1000 population.
RESULTS
Retrospective application of the system to 1994 data showed agreement with previous analyses. In 1995 and 1996, 36.4% and 27.3%, respectively, of municipalities with a significant increase in reports for 2 or more consecutive weeks before the first week of September had an outbreak, compared with 9.0% (in 1995, P = .042) and 6.0% (in 1996, P = .054) of towns without a significant increase. The system showed sensitivity near 40%, specificity near 89%, and accuracy in classifying municipalities near 84%.
CONCLUSIONS
This method provides a statistically based, visually striking, specific, and timely signal for dengue control efforts.
目的
对疾病控制与预防中心偏差条形图（公共卫生监测统计软件）以及基于实验室的监测数据在波多黎各登革热疫情检测中的效用进行评估。
方法
登革热发病率的显著上升定义为1989年至1993年4月至6月（季节性发病率最低时期）所有4周期间疑似病例超过均值2个标准差以上。疫情定义为报告的登革热年累计发病率大于每1000人口3例。
结果
该系统对1994年数据的回顾性应用与之前的分析结果一致。在1995年和1996年，9月第一周前连续2周或更长时间报告显著增加的市镇中，分别有36.4%和27.3%发生了疫情，相比之下，报告没有显著增加的市镇中这一比例分别为9.0%（1995年，P = .042）和6.0%（1996年，P = .054）。该系统显示出的灵敏度接近40%，特异性接近89%，对市镇分类的准确率接近84%。
结论
该方法为登革热防控工作提供了基于统计学的、视觉上引人注目的、特异且及时的信号。
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