Sonnefeld S T, Waldo D R, Lemieux J A, McKusick D R
Health Care Financing Administration.
Health Care Financ Rev. 1991 Fall;13(1):1-15.
In this article, the authors present a scenario for health expenditures during the 1990s. Assuming that current laws and practices remain unchanged, the Nation will spend $1.6 trillion for health care in the year 2000, an amount equal to 16.4 percent of that year's gross national product. Medicare and Medicaid will foot an increasing share of the Nation's health bill, rising to more than one-third of the total. The factors accounting for growth in national health spending are described as well as the effects of those factors on spending by type of service and by source of funds.
在本文中，作者提出了20世纪90年代医疗支出的一种设想情况。假设现行法律和做法保持不变，到2000年，美国将在医疗保健方面支出1.6万亿美元，这一数额相当于当年国民生产总值的16.4%。医疗保险和医疗补助将承担美国医疗费用中越来越大的份额，升至总额的三分之一以上。文中描述了国民医疗支出增长的因素，以及这些因素对各类服务支出和资金来源支出的影响。
