Burner S T, Waldo D R, McKusick D R
Office of National Health Statistics, Health Care Financing Administration.
Health Care Financ Rev. 1992 Fall;14(1):1-29.
If current laws and practices continue, health expenditures in the United States will reach $1.7 trillion by the year 2000, an amount equal to 18.1 percent of the Nation's gross domestic product (GDP). By the year 2030, as America's baby boomers enter their seventies and eighties, health spending will top $16 trillion, or 32 percent of GDP. The projections presented here incorporate the assumptions and conclusions of the Medicare trustees in their 1992 report to Congress on the status of Medicare, and the 1992 President's budget estimates of Medicaid outlays.
如果现行法律和做法持续不变,到2000年美国的医疗支出将达到1.7万亿美元,这一数额相当于美国国内生产总值(GDP)的18.1%。到2030年,随着美国婴儿潮一代步入七、八十岁,医疗支出将超过16万亿美元,占GDP的32%。此处给出的预测纳入了医疗保险受托人在其1992年提交给国会的关于医疗保险状况的报告中的假设和结论,以及1992年总统预算对医疗补助支出的估计。