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偶数交换:一种进行权衡的合理方法。

Even swaps: a rational method for making trade-offs.

作者信息

Hammond J S, Keeney R L, Raiffa H

机构信息

Center for Telecommunications Management, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, USA.

出版信息

Harv Bus Rev. 1998 Mar-Apr;76(2):137-8, 143-8, 150.

Abstract

Making wise trade-offs is one of the most important and difficult challenges in decision making. Needless to say, the more alternative you're considering and the more objectives you're pursuing, the more trade-offs you'll need to make. The sheer volume of trade-offs, however, is not what makes decision making so hard. It's the fact that each objective has its own basis of comparison, from precise numbers (34% versus 38%) to relationships (high versus low) to descriptive terms (red versus blue). You're not just trading off apples and oranges; you're trading off apples and oranges and elephants. How do you make trade-offs when comparing widely disparate things? In the past, decision makers have relied mostly on instinct, common sense, and guesswork. They've lacked a clear, rational, and easy-to-use trade-off methodology. To help fill that gap, the authors have developed a system-which they call even swaps-that provides a practical way of making trade-offs among a range of objectives across a range of alternatives. The even-swap method will not make complex decisions easy; you'll still have to make hard choices about the values you set and the trades you make. What it does provide is a reliable mechanisms for making trades and a coherent framework in which to make them. By simplifying and codifying the mechanical elements of trade-offs, the even-swap method lets you focus all your mental energy on the most important work of decision making: deciding the real value to your company of different courses of action.

摘要

做出明智的权衡是决策过程中最重要且最具挑战性的难题之一。不用说,你考虑的备选方案越多,追求的目标越多,就需要做出越多的权衡。然而,权衡的数量之多并非决策困难的原因所在。关键在于每个目标都有其自身的比较基础,从精确数字(34%对38%)到关系(高对低)再到描述性术语(红对蓝)。你不只是在权衡苹果和橙子;你是在权衡苹果、橙子和大象。当比较差异极大的事物时,该如何进行权衡呢?过去,决策者大多依靠直觉、常识和猜测。他们缺乏一种清晰、合理且易于使用的权衡方法。为了填补这一空白,作者们开发了一种系统——他们称之为等额交换法——它提供了一种在一系列备选方案中的多个目标之间进行权衡的实用方法。等额交换法不会让复杂的决策变得轻松;对于你设定的价值观和做出的权衡,你仍需做出艰难的抉择。它所提供的是一种进行权衡的可靠机制以及一个做出权衡的连贯框架。通过简化和编纂权衡的机械要素,等额交换法能让你将所有的脑力集中于决策中最重要的工作:确定不同行动方案对你公司的实际价值。

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