Calculating the interindividual geometric standard deviation for use in the integrated exposure uptake biokinetic model for lead in children.

The integrated exposure uptake biokinetic (IEUBK) model, recommended for use by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency at residential Superfund sites to predict potential risks to children from lead exposure and to establish lead remediation levels, requires an interindividual geometric standard deviation (GSDi) as an essential input parameter. The GSDi quantifies the variability of blood lead concentrations for children exposed to similar environmental concentrations of lead. Estimates of potential risks are directly related to the GSDi, and therefore the GSDi directly impacts the scope of remediation at Superfund sites. Site-specific GSDi can be calculated for sites where blood lead and environmental lead have been measured. This paper uses data from blood and environmental lead studies conducted at the Bingham Creek and Sandy, Utah, Superfund sites to calculate GSDi using regression modeling, box modeling, and structural equation modeling. GSDis were calculated using various methods for treating values below the analytical method detection and quantitation limits. Treatment of nonquantifiable blood lead concentrations affected the GSDi more than the statistical method used to calculate the GSDi. For any given treatment, the different statistical methods produced similar GSDis. Because of the uncertainties associated with data in the blood lead studies, we recommend that a range of GSDis be used when analyzing site-specific risks associated with exposure to environmental lead instead of a single estimate. Because the different statistical methods produce similar GSDis, we recommend a simple procedure to calculate site-specific GSDi from a scientifically sound blood and environmental lead study.