Lead risk assessment for children in Hungary by predicting their blood lead levels using US EPA integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic model.

The US EPA integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK 0.99d) lead exposure for children was validated, updated, and applied to predict mean blood lead levels based on lead uptake from multiple sources and provide assessment of risk. Surveys were carried out around houses in a polluted area (Heves, Hungary) in 1995. The collected data from that area have shown very high levels of lead in soil. In some cases the level of lead in soil has reached more than 1000 times the allowable limit value used (100 mg/kg) in Hungary. Moreover, the concentration of lead in air was measured and the concentration of lead in air varied from 0.05-1.83 micrograms/m3. The environmental data within the community were used to predict the children blood lead levels and to compare the observed estimates with the other predicted ones. The age of the investigated group of children varied from 0-60 months. The estimated blood lead levels have illustrated variation according to age, sex, and the specific site. It can be concluded from this study that the model can be used on a wide range to give us an excellent picture for site cleanup, to decision makers, and finally to use the environmental data to predict blood lead level for the community or population. Results of several validation exercises utilizing the IEUBK model comparing predicted and measured blood lead levels with international guidelines and the percent of risk of exceeding a specific blood lead level (i.e., 10 micrograms/dl) are presented in this paper.