Vartiainen T, Kartovaara L, Tuomisto J
National Public Health Institute, Department of Environmental Hygiene, Kuopio, Finland; Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Kuopio, Kuopio, Finland.
Environ Health Perspect. 1999 Oct;107(10):813-5. doi: 10.1289/ehp.99107813.
It has been proposed that environmental chemicalization is responsible for the recent decline in male ratio, but these speculations are based on statistics going back only a few decades. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether Finnish long-term data are compatible with the hypothesis that the decrease in the ratio of male to female births in industrial countries is caused by environmental factors. We analyzed the sex ratio of births from the files of Statistics Finland and all live births in Finland from 1751 to 1997. Running averages of 9 years (1751-1904) or 5 years (1905-1997) were analyzed for sex ratios. Additionally, to identify potential explanations for the findings, births from 1990 to 1997 were correlated with various family parameters. We found an increase in the proportion of males from 1751 to 1920; this was followed by a decrease and interrupted by peaks in births of males during and after World War I and World War II. None of the family parameters (paternal age, maternal age, age difference of parents, birth order) could explain the time trends. The turning point of male proportion precedes the period of industrialization or the introduction of pesticides or hormonal drugs, rendering a causal association unlikely. Moreover the trends are similar to those observed in other countries with worse pollution and much greater pesticide use.
有人提出,环境化学化是近期男性比例下降的原因,但这些推测仅基于几十年前的统计数据。本研究的目的是评估芬兰的长期数据是否与工业化国家男女性别出生比例下降是由环境因素导致这一假设相符。我们分析了芬兰统计局档案中1751年至1997年芬兰所有活产的性别比例。对1751年至1904年的9年移动平均值或1905年至1997年的5年移动平均值进行了性别比例分析。此外,为了找出这些发现的潜在解释,我们将1990年至1997年的出生情况与各种家庭参数进行了关联分析。我们发现,从1751年到1920年男性比例有所上升;随后出现下降,并在第一次世界大战和第二次世界大战期间及之后因男性出生高峰而中断。没有任何家庭参数(父亲年龄、母亲年龄、父母年龄差、出生顺序)能够解释这种时间趋势。男性比例的转折点早于工业化时期或农药或激素药物的引入时期,因此不太可能存在因果关系。此外,这些趋势与在污染更严重、农药使用量更大的其他国家所观察到的趋势相似。