Roizen R, Kerr W C, Fillmore K M
Department of Behavioral Sciences, University of California at San Francisco, CA 14143, USA.
West J Med. 1999 Aug;171(2):83-7.
To describe, evaluate, and suggest interpretations for an observed aggregate-level relation between trends in mortality from cirrhosis and per capita consumption of distilled spirits in the United States.
Trend analysis using data on US cirrhosis mortality and per capita alcohol consumption.
There is a consistent long-term trend relation between mortality from cirrhosis and per capita consumption of distilled spirits in the United States from 1949 to 1994. Two instances of comparatively sharp drops in the consumption of spirits in the 1940s generated mixed results in predicting changes in cirrhosis mortality.
An aggregate-level relation between trends in long-term cirrhosis mortality and the consumption of spirits falls considerably short of establishing a direct causal link between the two for individuals. Moreover, two sharp drops in the consumption of spirits generated only mixed results with respect to the short-term trend in cirrhosis. Nevertheless, the observed relation between the consumption of spirits and cirrhosis mortality merits further investigation.
描述、评估并对美国肝硬化死亡率趋势与人均蒸馏酒消费量之间观察到的总体水平关系提出解释。
利用美国肝硬化死亡率和人均酒精消费量数据进行趋势分析。
1949年至1994年期间，美国肝硬化死亡率与人均蒸馏酒消费量之间存在一致的长期趋势关系。20世纪40年代烈酒消费量出现两次相对急剧下降，在预测肝硬化死亡率变化方面产生了混合结果。
长期肝硬化死亡率趋势与烈酒消费之间的总体水平关系远不足以确定二者对个体而言存在直接因果联系。此外，烈酒消费的两次急剧下降在肝硬化短期趋势方面仅产生了混合结果。然而，观察到的烈酒消费与肝硬化死亡率之间的关系值得进一步研究。
