Korotayev Andrey, Khaltourina Daria, Meshcherina Kira, Zamiatnina Elena
Laboratory of Monitoring of Social Destabilization Risks, National Research University Higher School of Economics, 20 Myasnitskaya, Moscow, Russia.
Department of Risk Factor Prevention, Federal Research Institute for Health Organization and Informatics of Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, 11 Dobrolyubova, Moscow, Russia.
Alcohol Alcohol. 2018 Nov 1;53(6):742-752. doi: 10.1093/alcalc/agy054.
To explain comprehensively variations in adult male mortality rate in Europe, and in particular, high mortality in some East European countries with particular focus on specific patterns of alcohol consumption.
Per capita distilled spirits consumption is found to be the strongest determinant of the adult male mortality rate in Europe as soon as the unrecorded alcohol consumption is taken into account. It turns out to be much stronger than the other tested significant determinants such as per capita health expenditures, smoking prevalence, consumption of hard drugs and per capita consumption of vegetables and fruit.
Ordinary least squares (OLS) multiple regression with adult male mortality rate as a dependent variable, and various indicators of alcohol and drug consumption as well as logarithm of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, logarithm of total per capita health expenditures, latitude (climatic factors), per capita fruit and vegetable consumption, smoking prevalence as independent factors.
Per capita distilled spirits consumption turns out to be the strongest determinant of the adult male mortality rate in Europe as soon as the unrecorded alcohol consumption is taken into account. It turns out to be much stronger than the other tested significant determinants of the adult male mortality rate such as per capita health expenditures, smoking prevalence, consumption of hard drugs and per capita consumption of vegetables and fruit. Still, higher per capita wine consumption has turned out to be a marginally significant determinant of the higher adult male mortality rate in some tests. Latitude, beer and soft drug consumption have turned out insignificant in this study.
Spirits consumption is a major risk factor of adult male mortality, with significantly greater impact compared to beer and wine. Therefore, reduction in distilled spirits consumption in hard liquor drinking areas should be a major target in health policy.
全面解释欧洲成年男性死亡率的差异，特别是一些东欧国家的高死亡率，尤其关注特定的酒精消费模式。
一旦将未记录的酒精消费考虑在内，人均蒸馏酒消费量被发现是欧洲成年男性死亡率的最强决定因素。事实证明，它比其他经过测试的重要决定因素，如人均医疗支出、吸烟率、硬性毒品消费量以及人均蔬菜和水果消费量，要强大得多。
以成年男性死亡率为因变量，以酒精和毒品消费的各种指标以及人均国内生产总值（GDP）的对数、人均医疗总支出的对数、纬度（气候因素）、人均水果和蔬菜消费量、吸烟率作为自变量，进行普通最小二乘法（OLS）多元回归。
一旦将未记录的酒精消费考虑在内，人均蒸馏酒消费量被发现是欧洲成年男性死亡率的最强决定因素。事实证明，它比成年男性死亡率的其他经过测试的重要决定因素，如人均医疗支出、吸烟率、硬性毒品消费量以及人均蔬菜和水果消费量，要强大得多。不过，在一些测试中，较高的人均葡萄酒消费量已被证明是成年男性死亡率较高的一个边际显著决定因素。在本研究中，纬度、啤酒和软性毒品消费被证明是不显著的。
烈酒消费是成年男性死亡率的主要风险因素，与啤酒和葡萄酒相比，影响显著更大。因此，在烈酒饮用地区减少蒸馏酒消费应成为卫生政策的主要目标。
