Meuwissen M P, Horst S H, Huirne R B, Dijkhuizen A A
Department of Economics and Management, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Prev Vet Med. 1999 Dec 1;42(3-4):249-70. doi: 10.1016/s0167-5877(99)00079-3.
A model is presented aimed at a financial analysis of a Classical Swine Fever outbreak. Financial consequences are calculated for affected parties, including governments (EU and national), farms, and related industries in the production chain. The model can be used to calculate the losses of a real outbreak as well as of a simulated one. In this article, the model is applied to the 1997/1998 outbreak of Classical Swine Fever in the Netherlands. Results show that total financial consequences of the outbreak are US $2.3 billion. Consequential losses for farmers and related industries are US $423 million and US $596 million respectively. Budgetary consequences for governments include less than 50% of the total losses calculated by the model. The model can be adapted easily to suit other diseases and countries.
本文提出了一个针对古典猪瘟疫情进行财务分析的模型。该模型计算了受影响各方的财务后果，包括政府（欧盟及各国）、农场以及生产链中的相关行业。该模型可用于计算实际疫情以及模拟疫情的损失。在本文中，该模型应用于1997/1998年荷兰的古典猪瘟疫情。结果显示，此次疫情的总财务后果为23亿美元。农民和相关行业的间接损失分别为4.23亿美元和5.96亿美元。政府的预算后果占模型计算出的总损失不到50%。该模型可轻松调整以适用于其他疾病和国家。
