Gouveia N, Fletcher T
Departamento de Medicina Preventiva, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, Av Dr Arnaldo 455, Sao Paulo 01246-903, SP, Brazil.
Occup Environ Med. 2000 Jul;57(7):477-83. doi: 10.1136/oem.57.7.477.
To investigate the short term effects of air pollution on the respiratory morbidity of children living in São Paulo, Brazil, one of the largest cities in the developing world.
Daily counts of hospital admissions due to respiratory diseases along with daily levels of meteorological variables and air pollutants (PM(10), SO(2), NO(2), O(3), and CO) were analysed with Poisson regression. Final models were adjusted for the effects of time trends, seasonal patterns, weekdays, holidays, meteorological factors, and serial correlation.
Daily admissions of children to hospital for total respiratory disease and pneumonia showed significant increases associated with O(3) (5-8%), NO(2) (9%), and with PM(10) (9%) (results are for an increase from the 10th to the 90th percentile of pollution measurements). Consistently, effects for pneumonia were greater than for all respiratory diseases combined. Also, effects on infants (children <1 year old) presented higher estimates. Similar associations were found for asthma admissions. Point estimates for most pollutants were higher for asthma than for other diagnosed admissions. However, these associations were not significant.
These results agree with the limited publications on this subject but indicate a rather smaller magnitude of effects. Nevertheless, given the present concentrations of air pollution in São Paulo and the large population potentially exposed attention should be directed to minimise such effects.
调查空气污染对巴西圣保罗市儿童呼吸道发病率的短期影响，圣保罗是发展中世界最大的城市之一。
采用泊松回归分析因呼吸系统疾病导致的每日住院人数以及每日气象变量和空气污染物（PM10、SO2、NO2、O3和CO）水平。最终模型针对时间趋势、季节模式、工作日、节假日、气象因素和序列相关性的影响进行了调整。
儿童因总呼吸道疾病和肺炎的每日住院人数与O3（5 - 8%）、NO2（9%）和PM10（9%）显著增加相关（结果为污染测量值从第10百分位数增加到第90百分位数时的情况）。一致地，肺炎的影响大于所有呼吸道疾病合并的影响。此外，对婴儿（<1岁儿童）的影响估计更高。哮喘住院人数也发现了类似的关联。大多数污染物对哮喘的点估计高于其他诊断出的住院情况。然而，这些关联并不显著。
这些结果与关于该主题的有限出版物一致，但表明影响程度相对较小。尽管如此，鉴于圣保罗目前的空气污染浓度以及可能受影响的大量人口，应致力于将此类影响降至最低。
