Anderson H R, Ponce de Leon A, Bland J M, Bower J S, Strachan D P
Department of Public Health Sciences, St. George's Hospital Medical School, London.
BMJ. 1996 Mar 16;312(7032):665-9. doi: 10.1136/bmj.312.7032.665.
To investigate whether outdoor air pollution levels in London influence daily mortality.
Poisson regression analysis of daily counts of deaths, with adjustment for effects of secular trend, seasonal and other cyclical factors, day of the week, holidays, influenza epidemic, temperature, humidity, and autocorrelation, from April 1987 to March 1992. Pollution variables were particles (black smoke), sulphur dioxide, ozone, and nitrogen dioxide, lagged 0-3 days.
Greater London.
Relative risk of death from all causes (excluding accidents), respiratory disease, and cardiovascular disease.
Ozone levels (same day) were associated with a significant increase in all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality; the effects were greater in the warm seasons (April to September) and were independent of the effects of other pollutants. In the warm season an increase of the eight hour ozone concentration from the 10th to the 90th centile of the seasonal change (7-36 ppb) was associated with an increase of 3.5% (95% confidence interval 1.7 to 5.3), 3.6% (1.04 to 6.1), and 5.4% (0.4 to 10.7) in all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality respectively. Black smoke concentrations on the previous day were significantly associated with all cause mortality, and this effect was also greater in the warm season and was independent of the effects of other pollutants. For black smoke an increase from the 10th to 90th centile in the warm season (7-19 microg/m3) was associated with an increase of 2.5% (0.9 to 4.1) in all cause mortality. Significant but smaller and less consistent effects were also observed for nitrogen dioxide and sulphur dioxide.
Daily variations in air pollution within the range currently occurring in London may have an adverse effect on daily mortality.
调查伦敦的室外空气污染水平是否会影响每日死亡率。
对1987年4月至1992年3月期间的每日死亡人数进行泊松回归分析，并对长期趋势、季节和其他周期性因素、星期几、节假日、流感流行、温度、湿度和自相关的影响进行调整。污染变量为颗粒物（黑烟）、二氧化硫、臭氧和二氧化氮，滞后0至3天。
大伦敦地区。
各种原因（不包括事故）、呼吸系统疾病和心血管疾病导致的死亡相对风险。
臭氧水平（当日）与各种原因、心血管和呼吸系统死亡率的显著增加相关；在温暖季节（4月至9月）影响更大，且独立于其他污染物的影响。在温暖季节，八小时臭氧浓度从季节变化的第10百分位数增加到第90百分位数（7 - 36 ppb），分别与各种原因、心血管和呼吸系统死亡率增加3.5%（95%置信区间1.7至5.3）、3.6%（1.04至6.1）和5.4%（0.4至10.7）相关。前一天的黑烟浓度与各种原因死亡率显著相关，且在温暖季节这种影响也更大，且独立于其他污染物的影响。对于黑烟，在温暖季节从第10百分位数增加到第90百分位数（7 - 19微克/立方米）与各种原因死亡率增加2.5%（0.9至4.1）相关。对于二氧化氮和二氧化硫也观察到显著但较小且不太一致的影响。
伦敦目前出现的空气污染每日变化可能对每日死亡率产生不利影响。
