Klauer K C, Musch J, Naumer B
Psychologisches Institut, Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Germany.
Psychol Rev. 2000 Oct;107(4):852-84. doi: 10.1037/0033-295x.107.4.852.
A multinomial model is used to disentangle the respective contributions of reasoning processes and response bias in conclusion-acceptance data that exhibit belief bias. A model-based meta-analysis of 22 studies reveals that such data are structurally too sparse to allow discrimination of different accounts of belief bias. Four experiments are conducted to obtain richer data, allowing deeper tests through the use of the multinomial model. None of the current accounts of belief bias is consistent with the complex pattern of results. A new theory of belief bias is proposed that assumes that most reasoners construct only one mental model representing the premises as well as the conclusion or, in the case of an unbelievable conclusion, its logical negation. New predictions derived from the theory are confirmed in 4 additional studies.
采用多项式模型来剖析推理过程和反应偏差在呈现信念偏差的结论接受数据中的各自贡献。对22项研究进行基于模型的元分析发现，此类数据在结构上过于稀疏，无法区分对信念偏差的不同解释。进行了四项实验以获取更丰富的数据，从而能够通过使用多项式模型进行更深入的检验。当前关于信念偏差的解释均与复杂的结果模式不一致。提出了一种新的信念偏差理论，该理论假定大多数推理者仅构建一个心理模型，该模型既代表前提也代表结论，或者在结论不可信的情况下，代表其逻辑否定。从该理论推导得出的新预测在另外四项研究中得到了证实。
