Wilmoth J R
Department of Demography, University of California, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720-2120, USA.
Exp Gerontol. 2000 Dec;35(9-10):1111-29. doi: 10.1016/s0531-5565(00)00194-7.
Life expectancy at birth has roughly tripled over the course of human history. Early gains were due to a general improvement in living standards and organized efforts to control the spread of infectious disease. Reductions in infant and child mortality in the late 19th and early 20th century led to a rapid increase in life expectancy at birth. Since 1970, the main factor driving continued gains in life expectancy in industrialized countries is a reduction in death rates among the elderly. In particular, death rates due to cardiovascular disease and cancer have declined in recent decades thanks to a variety of factors, including successful medical intervention. Based on available demographic evidence, the human life span shows no sign of approaching a fixed limit imposed by biology or other factors. Rather, both the average and the maximum human life span have increased steadily over time for more than a century. The complexity and historical stability of these changes suggest that the most reliable method of predicting the future is merely to extrapolate past trends. Such methods suggest that life expectancy at birth in industrialized countries will be about 85-87years at the middle of the 21st century.
在人类历史进程中，出生时的预期寿命大约增长了两倍。早期的增长得益于生活水平的普遍提高以及为控制传染病传播而开展的有组织的努力。19世纪末20世纪初婴儿和儿童死亡率的降低导致出生时预期寿命迅速增加。自1970年以来，工业化国家预期寿命持续增长的主要因素是老年人死亡率的降低。特别是，由于包括成功的医疗干预在内的多种因素，近几十年来心血管疾病和癌症导致的死亡率有所下降。根据现有的人口统计学证据，人类寿命没有迹象显示会接近由生物学或其他因素所设定的固定极限。相反，一个多世纪以来，人类的平均寿命和最长寿命都在稳步增长。这些变化的复杂性和历史稳定性表明，预测未来最可靠的方法仅仅是推断过去的趋势。此类方法表明，到21世纪中叶，工业化国家出生时的预期寿命将约为85至87岁。
