Dolan M, Doyle M
Edenfield Centre, Mental Health Services of Salford, Bury New Road, Prestwich, Manchester M25 3BL.
Br J Psychiatry. 2000 Oct;177:303-11. doi: 10.1192/bjp.177.4.303.
Violence risk prediction is a priority issue for clinicians working with mentally disordered offenders.
To review the current status of violence risk prediction research.
Literature search (Medline). Key words: violence, risk prediction, mental disorder.
Systematic/structured risk assessment approaches may enhance the accuracy of clinical prediction of violent outcomes. Data on the predictive validity of available clinical risk assessment tools are based largely on American and North American studies and further validation is required in British samples. The Psychopathy Checklist appears to be a key predictor of violent recidivism in a variety of settings.
Violence risk prediction is an inexact science and as such will continue to provoke debate. Clinicians clearly need to be able to demonstrate the rationale behind their decisions on violence risk and much can be learned from recent developments in research on violence risk prediction.
暴力风险预测是从事精神障碍罪犯工作的临床医生的首要问题。
回顾暴力风险预测研究的现状。
文献检索（医学期刊数据库）。关键词：暴力、风险预测、精神障碍。
系统/结构化风险评估方法可能提高暴力结果临床预测的准确性。现有临床风险评估工具预测有效性的数据主要基于美国和北美研究，英国样本需要进一步验证。精神病态检查表似乎是各种环境中暴力再犯的关键预测指标。
暴力风险预测是一门不精确的科学，因此将继续引发争论。临床医生显然需要能够证明其关于暴力风险决策背后的理由，并且可以从暴力风险预测研究的最新进展中学到很多东西。
