Farrelly M C, Bray J W, Zarkin G A, Wendling B W
Center for Economics Research, Research Triangle Institute, 3040 Cornwallis Road, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, USA.
J Health Econ. 2001 Jan;20(1):51-68. doi: 10.1016/s0167-6296(00)00067-9.
Recent studies have shown that efforts to curb youths' alcohol use, such as increasing the price of alcohol or limiting youths' access, have succeeded but may have had the unintended consequence of increasing marijuana use. This possibility is troubling in light of the doubling of teen marijuana use from 1990 to 1997. What impact will recent increases in cigarette prices have on the demand for other substances, such as marijuana? To better understand how the demand for marijuana and tobacco responds to changes in the policies and prices that affect their use, we explore the National Household Survey on Drug Abuse (NHSDA) from 1990 to 1996. We find evidence that both higher fines for marijuana possession and increased probability of arrest decrease the probability that a young adult will use marijuana. We also find that higher cigarette taxes appear to decrease the intensity of marijuana use and may have a modest negative effect on the probability of use among males.
近期研究表明，为遏制青少年饮酒所做的努力，比如提高酒价或限制青少年获得酒的途径，已经取得了成功，但可能产生了增加大麻使用量这种意外后果。鉴于1990年至1997年青少年大麻使用量翻了一番，这种可能性令人担忧。近期香烟价格上涨会对大麻等其他物质的需求产生什么影响呢？为了更好地理解大麻和烟草的需求如何对影响其使用的政策和价格变化做出反应，我们研究了1990年至1996年的全国药物滥用家庭调查（NHSDA）。我们发现，有证据表明，持有大麻的罚款增加以及被捕可能性增大，都会降低年轻人使用大麻的概率。我们还发现，香烟税提高似乎会降低大麻使用的强度，并且可能对男性的使用概率产生适度的负面影响。
