Comstock G W, Burke A E, Hoffman S C, Norkus E P, Gross M, Helzlsouer K J
Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins School of Hygiene and Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland 21205-2179, USA.
Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 2001 Jan;10(1):65-8.
Community-wide programs to collect blood for a research serum bank were carried out in Washington County, Maryland in 1974 and 1989. Of the 8395 persons who participated in both programs, 64 were controls in a nested case-control study of the association of antioxidant micronutrients with subsequent breast cancer, and 30 and 166 were controls in similar studies of lung and prostate cancer. Assay results for five carotenoids, two retinoids, and two tocopherols in samples of blood collected 15 years apart were thus available for comparisons of micronutrient concentrations. The mean Spearman rank order correlation coefficient for all comparisons was 0.44, with two coefficients greater than 0.60 and two less than 0.30. Blood pressure readings at the two blood collections had a mean rank order correlation coefficient of 0.46. Because blood pressure readings in 1974 were shown to be significantly predictive of atherosclerosis 15-18 years later, the present results suggest that ranked concentrations of antioxidant micronutrients from a single sample are sufficiently representative to be used as predictors of subsequent concentrations and are thus suitable for assessment as risk factors for subsequent illnesses.
1974年和1989年，马里兰州华盛顿县开展了社区范围内为研究血清库采集血液的项目。在参与这两个项目的8395人中，有64人在一项关于抗氧化微量营养素与后续乳腺癌关联的巢式病例对照研究中作为对照，30人和166人在类似的肺癌和前列腺癌研究中作为对照。因此，可以获得相隔15年采集的血液样本中5种类胡萝卜素、2种视黄醇和2种生育酚的检测结果，用于比较微量营养素浓度。所有比较的平均斯皮尔曼等级相关系数为0.44，其中两个系数大于0.60，两个系数小于0.30。两次采血时的血压读数平均等级相关系数为0.46。由于1974年的血压读数被证明能显著预测15 - 18年后的动脉粥样硬化，目前的结果表明，单个样本中抗氧化微量营养素的排序浓度具有足够的代表性，可作为后续浓度的预测指标，因此适合作为后续疾病风险因素进行评估。
