Lipkus I M, Samsa G, Rimer B K
Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27701, USA.
Med Decis Making. 2001 Jan-Feb;21(1):37-44. doi: 10.1177/0272989X0102100105.
Numeracy, how facile people are with basic probability and mathematical concepts, is associated with how people perceive health risks. Performance on simple numeracy problems has been poor among populations with little as well as more formal education. Here, we examine how highly educated participants performed on a general and an expanded numeracy scale. The latter was designed within the context of health risks.
A total of 463 men and women aged 40 and older completed a 3-item general and an expanded 7-item numeracy scale. The expanded scale assessed how well people 1) differentiate and perform simple mathematical operations on risk magnitudes using percentages and proportions, 2) convert percentages to proportions, 3) convert proportions to percentages, and 4) convert probabilities to proportions.
On average, 18% and 32% of participants correctly answered all of the general and expanded numeracy scale items, respectively. Approximately 16% to 20% incorrectly answered the most straightforward questions pertaining to risk magnitudes (e.g., Which represents the larger risk: 1%, 5%, or 10%?). A factor analysis revealed that the general and expanded risk numeracy items tapped the construct of global numeracy.
These results suggest that even highly educated participants have difficulty with relatively simple numeracy questions, thus replicating in part earlier studies. The implication is that usual strategies for communicating numerical risk may be flawed. Methods and consequences of communicating health risk information tailored to a person's level of numeracy should be explored further.
数字运算能力，即人们对基本概率和数学概念的掌握程度，与人们对健康风险的认知相关。在受教育程度较低和较高的人群中，简单数字运算问题的表现都很差。在此，我们研究了受过高等教育的参与者在一般数字运算量表和扩展数字运算量表上的表现。后者是在健康风险背景下设计的。
共有463名年龄在40岁及以上的男性和女性完成了一个包含3个项目的一般数字运算量表和一个扩展的包含7个项目的数字运算量表。扩展量表评估了人们1）使用百分比和比例对风险大小进行区分和执行简单数学运算的能力，2）将百分比转换为比例的能力，3）将比例转换为百分比的能力，以及4）将概率转换为比例的能力。
平均而言，分别有18%和32%的参与者正确回答了所有一般数字运算量表项目和扩展数字运算量表项目。大约16%至20%的参与者错误地回答了与风险大小相关的最直接的问题（例如，哪个代表更大的风险：1%、5%还是10%？）。因素分析表明，一般和扩展的风险数字运算项目都涉及整体数字运算的结构。
这些结果表明，即使是受过高等教育的参与者在相对简单的数字运算问题上也有困难，从而部分重复了早期的研究。这意味着通常传达数字风险的策略可能存在缺陷。应进一步探索根据个人数字运算水平量身定制的健康风险信息沟通方法及其后果。
