Mackinson S
Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada.
Environ Manage. 2001 Apr;27(4):533-45. doi: 10.1007/s002670010168.
Attempting to predict the spatial dynamics fish stocks, as required for management, is an ominous task given our incomplete understanding of biological and ecological mechanisms underpinning behavioral responses of fish. Large gaps still exist in our basic scientific knowledge. Nonetheless, the knowledge of fishers and fishery managers is not incorporated into our scientific analyses, even though such information is rich in observation since knowledge of fish behavior and distribution is a prerequisite for their profession. Combining such observations with more conventional scientific studies and theoretical interpretations provides a means by which we may bridge some gaps in our knowledge. Presented here is an example of how both local and scientific knowledge can be integrated in a heuristic model. The model, CLUPEX, is developed in the framework of a fuzzy logic expert system and uses linguistic statements written in natural language to capture and combine knowledge sources in the form of IF... THEN rules. The rules are inferred from interviews with experts and fishery professionals including fishers, fishery managers, scientists, and First Nations people. The knowledge base, comprised of the set of rules, is flexible in the sense that it can easily be modified to add additional information or change current information. Using input pertaining to biotic and abiotic environmental conditions, CLUPEX uses the rules to provide quantitative and qualitative predictions on the structure, dynamics and mesoscale distribution of shoals of migratory adult herring during different life stages of their annual life cycle.
鉴于我们对支撑鱼类行为反应的生物学和生态机制的理解尚不完整，按照管理要求尝试预测鱼类种群的空间动态是一项艰巨的任务。我们的基础科学知识仍存在巨大差距。尽管如此，渔民和渔业管理人员的知识并未纳入我们的科学分析之中，即便这类信息包含丰富的观察内容，因为了解鱼类行为和分布是他们职业的一项先决条件。将此类观察结果与更传统的科学研究及理论解释相结合，为我们弥合知识差距提供了一种途径。这里展示的是一个如何将地方知识和科学知识整合到启发式模型中的例子。CLUPEX模型是在模糊逻辑专家系统的框架下开发的，它使用以自然语言编写的语言陈述，通过“如果……那么”规则的形式来获取和整合知识来源。这些规则是从对包括渔民、渔业管理人员、科学家和原住民在内的专家及渔业专业人员的访谈中推断出来的。由这组规则构成的知识库具有灵活性，因为它可以轻松修改以添加额外信息或更改现有信息。CLUPEX利用与生物和非生物环境条件相关的输入信息，运用这些规则对洄游成年鲱鱼在其年度生命周期不同阶段的鱼群结构、动态和中尺度分布进行定量和定性预测。
