Tay R
Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety, Queensland University of Technology, Carseldine.
Aust N Z J Public Health. 2001;25(1):21-3. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-842x.2001.tb00544.x.
In an effort to reduce road trauma, the New Zealand government implemented a series of intervention programs over the last decade, with young male drivers as the main target audience. Previous research, however, found little or no evidence that these programs had any impact on this group of drivers despite an apparent decrease in their crash involvement.
To determine the approximate time when the decrease in the number of fatal crashes involving young male drivers occurred.
A Poisson change-point estimator was used to locate the most likely point where a decrease in the average number of monthly crashes had occurred.
The most likely time of change was found to coincide with the time when the Transport Act 1992 was debated and passed in Parliament. The publicity given to the issue and the Government's signal of impending actions were sufficient to induce a significant change in the behaviours of young male drivers.
This result can partially reconcile the difference between the apparent reduction in the number of fatal crashes involving young male drivers and the inability of previous studies to find a significant impact of the various intervention programs since the change occurred prior to the actual implementation of the programs. Nevertheless, it was argued that the implementation of the programs subsequently was necessary in sustaining the reduction.
为减少道路交通事故，新西兰政府在过去十年实施了一系列干预计划，主要针对年轻男性驾驶员。然而，此前的研究发现，几乎没有证据表明这些计划对该群体驾驶员产生了任何影响，尽管他们的撞车事故参与率明显下降。
确定涉及年轻男性驾驶员的致命撞车事故数量减少的大致时间。
使用泊松变化点估计器来确定每月撞车事故平均数下降最可能出现的点。
发现最可能的变化时间与1992年《运输法》在议会进行辩论并通过的时间一致。对该问题的宣传以及政府即将采取行动的信号足以促使年轻男性驾驶员的行为发生重大变化。
这一结果可以部分解释涉及年轻男性驾驶员的致命撞车事故数量明显减少与先前研究未能发现各种干预计划产生重大影响之间的差异，因为变化发生在计划实际实施之前。然而，有人认为随后实施这些计划对于维持减少趋势是必要的。
