Carbajo A E, Schweigmann N, Curto S I, de Garín A, Bejarán R
Grupo de Estudio de Mosquitos, Departamento de Ciencias Biológicas, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Trop Med Int Health. 2001 Mar;6(3):170-83. doi: 10.1046/j.1365-3156.2001.00693.x.
Dengue is an emerging disease that has become important in Argentina because of its vector's presence (Aedes aegypti) and its endemicity in neighbouring countries. Thematic maps were built for Argentina considering four main factors: population susceptibility to dengue virus infection (population density); entrance of the virus from endemic countries (main roads and airports); conditions for the vector (urbanization, altitude, minimum, maximum and mean daily temperatures) and virus extrinsic incubation period (EIP) completion in the mosquito before its death. EIP duration was modelled with a temperature-dependent function and considering life expectancies of 10, 15 and 20 days for the adult mosquito. The results show maximum risk of dengue transmission in the northern and north-eastern part of the country year-round and in the centre during the summer. Although life expectancy of the adult mosquito has a considerable influence on EIP completion, the north-east to south-west decreasing gradient is maintained. Assuming 20-day life expectancy, the EIP would be completed in almost any region of the country; whereas with 15-day life expectancy it would be limited to vector distribution area, and at 10 days it would be restricted to the northern extreme of the country.
登革热是一种新兴疾病，由于其病媒（埃及伊蚊）的存在及其在邻国的地方性流行，在阿根廷已变得十分重要。考虑到四个主要因素为阿根廷绘制了专题地图：人群对登革热病毒感染的易感性（人口密度）；病毒从地方性流行国家的传入（主要道路和机场）；病媒的生存条件（城市化、海拔、每日最低、最高和平均气温）以及病毒在蚊子死亡前在其体内完成的外在潜伏期（EIP）。EIP持续时间采用温度依赖函数进行建模，并考虑成年蚊子10天、15天和20天的预期寿命。结果表明，该国北部和东北部全年以及中部夏季登革热传播风险最高。尽管成年蚊子的预期寿命对EIP的完成有相当大的影响，但从东北到西南的递减梯度依然存在。假设预期寿命为20天，EIP几乎可以在该国的任何地区完成；而预期寿命为15天时，它将局限于病媒分布区域，预期寿命为10天时，它将仅限于该国的最北部地区。
