Armstrong G L, Schillinger J, Markowitz L, Nahmias A J, Johnson R E, McQuillan G M, St Louis M E
Office of Surveillance, National Center for Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA.
Am J Epidemiol. 2001 May 1;153(9):912-20. doi: 10.1093/aje/153.9.912.
Between the time that two large, national surveys were conducted, the Second National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1976-1980) and the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1988-1994), prevalence of herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection in the United States increased by 30%. From these survey data, the authors estimated the incidence of HSV-2 infection in the civilian, noninstitutionalized population aged > or = 12 years by means of a mathematical model that allowed overall incidence to increase linearly with time but required the shape of the age-specific incidence curve to remain constant. From 1970 to 1985, annual incidence of HSV-2 infection in HSV-2-seronegative persons increased by 82%, from 4.6 per 1,000 (95% confidence interval: 4.2, 5.0) to 8.4 per 1,000 (95% confidence interval: 7.7, 9.1). Incidence in 1985 was higher in women than in men (9.9 vs. 6.9 per 1,000), higher in Blacks than in Whites (20.4 vs. 6.3 per 1,000), and highest in the group aged 20-29 years (14.6 and 22.5 per 1,000 in men and women, respectively). Thus, by 1985, approximately 1,640,000+/-150,000 persons (730,000 men and 910,000 women) were being infected annually with HSV-2.
在两项大型全国性调查开展期间，即第二次全国健康与营养检查调查（1976 - 1980年）和第三次全国健康与营养检查调查（1988 - 1994年），美国2型单纯疱疹病毒（HSV - 2）感染的患病率上升了30%。根据这些调查数据，作者通过一个数学模型估算了12岁及以上非机构化平民人群中HSV - 2感染的发病率，该模型允许总体发病率随时间呈线性增长，但要求特定年龄发病率曲线的形状保持不变。从1970年到1985年，HSV - 2血清阴性人群中HSV - 2感染的年发病率上升了82%，从每1000人中有4.6例（95%置信区间：4.2，5.0）升至每1000人中有8.4例（95%置信区间：7.7，9.1）。1985年女性的发病率高于男性（每1000人中有9.9例对6.9例），黑人高于白人（每1000人中有20.4例对6.3例），在20 - 29岁年龄组中最高（男性和女性分别为每1000人中有14.6例和22.5例）。因此，到1985年，每年约有1640000±150000人（730000名男性和910000名女性）感染HSV - 2。
