Taylor L H, Latham S M, Woolhouse M E
Centre for Tropical Veterinary Medicine, University of Edinburgh, Easter Bush, Roslin, Midlothian, EH25 9RG, UK.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2001 Jul 29;356(1411):983-9. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2001.0888.
A comprehensive literature review identifies 1415 species of infectious organism known to be pathogenic to humans, including 217 viruses and prions, 538 bacteria and rickettsia, 307 fungi, 66 protozoa and 287 helminths. Out of these, 868 (61%) are zoonotic, that is, they can be transmitted between humans and animals, and 175 pathogenic species are associated with diseases considered to be 'emerging'. We test the hypothesis that zoonotic pathogens are more likely to be associated with emerging diseases than non-emerging ones. Out of the emerging pathogens, 132 (75%) are zoonotic, and overall, zoonotic pathogens are twice as likely to be associated with emerging diseases than non-zoonotic pathogens. However, the result varies among taxa, with protozoa and viruses particularly likely to emerge, and helminths particularly unlikely to do so, irrespective of their zoonotic status. No association between transmission route and emergence was found. This study represents the first quantitative analysis identifying risk factors for human disease emergence.
一项全面的文献综述确定了1415种已知可对人类致病的传染性生物体，其中包括217种病毒和朊病毒、538种细菌和立克次氏体、307种真菌、66种原生动物和287种蠕虫。其中，868种（61%）是人畜共患病原体，即它们可在人类和动物之间传播，且有175种致病物种与被视为“新发”的疾病相关。我们检验了这样一个假设：人畜共患病原体比非人畜共患病原体更有可能与新发疾病相关。在新发病原体中，132种（75%）是人畜共患病原体，总体而言，人畜共患病原体与新发疾病相关的可能性是非人畜共患病原体的两倍。然而，结果在不同分类群之间存在差异，原生动物和病毒尤其容易新发，而蠕虫尤其不容易新发，无论其人畜共患病状态如何。未发现传播途径与新发之间存在关联。本研究是首次对确定人类疾病新发风险因素进行的定量分析。
