Kirk D
Food Research Institute, Stanford University, USA.
Popul Stud (Camb). 1996 Nov;50(3):361-87. doi: 10.1080/0032472031000149536.
Demography is a science short on theory, rich in quantification. Nevertheless, demography has produced one of the best documented generalizations in the social sciences: the demographic transition. What is the demographic transition? Stripped to its essentials it is the theory that societies progress from a pre-modern regime of high fertility and high mortality to a post-modern regime of low fertility and low mortality. The cause of the transition has been sought in the reduction of the death rate by controlling epidemic and contagious diseases. Then, with modernization, children become more costly. Cultural changes weaken the importance of children. The increasing empowerment of women to make their own reproductive decisions leads to smaller families. Thus there is a change in values, emphasizing the quality of children rather than their quantity. In short, the fertility transition is becoming universal phenomenon, in which every country may be placed on a continuum of progress in the transition.
人口统计学是一门理论匮乏但量化丰富的科学。然而，人口统计学却产生了社会科学中记载最为详实的一般性结论之一：人口转变。什么是人口转变？ stripped to its essentials it is the theory that societies progress from a pre-modern regime of high fertility and high mortality to a post-modern regime of low fertility and low mortality. 人口转变的原因一直被认为是通过控制流行病和传染病降低了死亡率。然后，随着现代化进程，养育孩子的成本变得更高。文化变迁削弱了孩子的重要性。女性在做出自身生育决策方面的自主权不断增强，导致家庭规模变小。因此，价值观发生了变化，更加注重孩子的质量而非数量。简而言之，生育率转变正成为一种普遍现象，每个国家都可以在这一转变的连续进程中找到自己的位置。 （原文中“stripped to its essentials it is the theory that societies progress from a pre-modern regime of high fertility and high mortality to a post-modern regime of low fertility and low mortality.”表述有误，正确译文为：概括来讲，该理论认为社会从高生育率和高死亡率的前现代模式过渡到低生育率和低死亡率的后现代模式。） 正确完整译文：人口统计学是一门理论匮乏但量化丰富的科学。然而，人口统计学却产生了社会科学中记载最为详实的一般性结论之一：人口转变。什么是人口转变？概括来讲，该理论认为社会从高生育率和高死亡率的前现代模式过渡到低生育率和低死亡率的后现代模式。人口转变的原因一直被认为是通过控制流行病和传染病降低了死亡率。然后，随着现代化进程，养育孩子的成本变得更高。文化变迁削弱了孩子的重要性。女性在做出自身生育决策方面的自主权不断增强，导致家庭规模变小。因此，价值观发生了变化，更加注重孩子的质量而非数量。简而言之，生育率转变正成为一种普遍现象，每个国家都可以在这一转变的连续进程中找到自己的位置。
