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推进粮食安全并提出未来战略:全球粮食安全指数与人口最多的五个国家年度人口变化的比较绩效分析

Advancing food security and proposing future strategies: A comparative performance analysis of Global Food Security Index and Annual Population Changes of top five populous countries.

作者信息

Guo Xiuling, Islam Muhammad

机构信息

Henan Police College, Zhengzhou, Henan, China.

Director of Agriculture (Statistics), Crop Reporting Service, Punjab, Pakistan.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2025 May 21;20(5):e0324231. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0324231. eCollection 2025.

Abstract

Rising global food insecurity driven by population growth needs urgent measure for universal access to food. This research employs Comparative Performance Analysis (CPA) to evaluate the Global Food Security Index (GFSI), its components [Affordability (AF), Availability (AV), Quality & Safety (Q&S) and Sustainability & Adaptation (S&A)] in tandem with Annual Population Change (APC) for world's five most populous countries (India, China, USA, Indonesia and Pakistan) using dataset spanning from 2012 to 2022. CPA is applied using descriptive analysis, correlation analysis, Rule of Thumb (RoT) and testing of hypothesis etc. RoT is used with a new analytical approach by applying the significance measures for correlation coefficients. The study suggests that India should enhance its GFSI rank by addressing AF and mitigating the adverse effects of APC on GFSI with a particular focus on Q&S and S&A. China needs to reduce the impact of APC on GFSI by prioritizing AV and S&A. The USA is managing its GFSI well, but focused efforts are still required to reduce APC's impact on Q&S and S&A. Indonesia should improve across all sectors with a particular focus on APC reduction and mitigating its adverse effects on AF, AV, and S&A. Pakistan should intensify efforts to boost its rank and enhance all sectors with reducing APC. There is statistically significant and negative relation between GFSI and APC for China, Indonesia and found insignificant for others countries. This study holds promise for providing crucial policy recommendations to enhance food security by tackling its underlying factors.

摘要

人口增长导致全球粮食不安全状况加剧,迫切需要采取措施确保人人都能获得食物。本研究采用比较绩效分析(CPA)来评估全球粮食安全指数(GFSI)及其组成部分[可负担性(AF)、可得性(AV)、质量与安全(Q&S)以及可持续性与适应性(S&A)],并结合世界上人口最多的五个国家(印度、中国、美国、印度尼西亚和巴基斯坦)2012年至2022年的年度人口变化(APC)进行分析。CPA运用描述性分析、相关性分析、经验法则(RoT)和假设检验等方法。RoT通过对相关系数应用显著性度量,采用了一种新的分析方法。研究表明,印度应通过解决可负担性问题并减轻年度人口变化对GFSI的不利影响,尤其关注质量与安全以及可持续性与适应性,来提高其GFSI排名。中国需要通过优先考虑可得性和可持续性与适应性,来减少年度人口变化对GFSI的影响。美国在管理其GFSI方面做得很好,但仍需集中精力减少年度人口变化对质量与安全以及可持续性与适应性的影响。印度尼西亚应在所有领域进行改进,尤其注重减少年度人口变化并减轻其对可负担性、可得性和可持续性与适应性的不利影响。巴基斯坦应加大努力提升其排名,并通过减少年度人口变化来加强所有领域。中国、印度尼西亚的GFSI与年度人口变化之间存在统计学上显著的负相关关系,其他国家则不显著。这项研究有望通过解决粮食安全的潜在因素,为提供关键的政策建议以增强粮食安全提供帮助。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1b93/12094790/e0bf55de1666/pone.0324231.g001.jpg

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