Smith David L, Lucey Brendan, Waller Lance A, Childs James E, Real Leslie A
Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, University of Maryland, 115 Howard Hall, 660 West Redwood Street, Baltimore, MD 21201, USA.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2002 Mar 19;99(6):3668-72. doi: 10.1073/pnas.042400799.
Often as an epidemic spreads, the leading front is irregular, reflecting spatial variation in local transmission rates. We developed a methodology for quantifying spatial variation in rates of disease spread across heterogeneous landscapes. Based on data for epidemic raccoon rabies in Connecticut, we developed a stochastic spatial model of rabies spread through the state's 169 townships. We quantified spatial variation in transmission rates associated with human demography and key habitat features. We found that large rivers act as semipermeable barriers, leading to a 7-fold reduction in the local rates of propagation. By combining the spatial distribution of major rivers with long-distance dispersal we were able to account for the observed irregular pattern of disease spread across the state without recourse to direct assessment of host-pathogen populations.
通常，随着疫情蔓延，前沿地带并不规则，这反映了局部传播率的空间差异。我们开发了一种方法，用于量化疾病在异质景观中传播速率的空间差异。基于康涅狄格州浣熊狂犬病疫情的数据，我们建立了一个狂犬病在该州169个城镇传播的随机空间模型。我们量化了与人口统计学和关键栖息地特征相关的传播率的空间差异。我们发现，大河起到了半透性屏障的作用，导致局部传播率降低了7倍。通过将主要河流的空间分布与远距离扩散相结合，我们能够解释该州观察到的疾病传播不规则模式，而无需直接评估宿主-病原体种群。
