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在时间压力和不确定性下支持决策制定与行动选择:飞行中结冰的案例

Supporting decision making and action selection under time pressure and uncertainty: the case of in-flight icing.

作者信息

Sarter N B, Schroeder B

机构信息

Department of Industrial and System Engineering, Ohio State University, 43210, USA.

出版信息

Hum Factors. 2001 Winter;43(4):573-83. doi: 10.1518/001872001775870403.

Abstract

Operators in high-risk domains such as aviation often need to make decisions under time pressure and uncertainty. One way to support them in this task is through the introduction of decision support systems (DSSs). The present study examined the effectiveness of two different DSS implementations: status and command displays. Twenty-seven pilots (9 pilots each in a baseline, status, and command group) flew 20 simulated approaches involving icing encounters. Accuracy of the decision aid (a smart icing system), familiarity with the icing condition, timing of icing onset, and autopilot usage were varied within subjects. Accurate information from either decision aid led to improved handling of the icing encounter. However, when inaccurate information was presented, performance dropped below that of the baseline condition. The cost of inaccurate information was particularly high for command displays and in the case of unfamiliar icing conditions. Our findings suggest that unless perfect reliability of a decision aid can be assumed, status displays may be preferable to command displays in high-risk domains (e.g., space flight, medicine, and process control), as the former yield more robust performance benefits and appear less vulnerable to automation biases.

摘要

航空等高风险领域的操作人员经常需要在时间压力和不确定性下做出决策。在这项任务中支持他们的一种方法是引入决策支持系统(DSS)。本研究考察了两种不同的决策支持系统实现方式的有效性:状态显示和指令显示。27名飞行员(基线组、状态显示组和指令显示组各9名飞行员)进行了20次涉及结冰情况的模拟进近操作。决策辅助工具(智能防冰系统)的准确性、对结冰状况的熟悉程度、结冰开始的时间以及自动驾驶仪的使用在受试者内部有所不同。来自任何一种决策辅助工具的准确信息都能改善对结冰情况的应对。然而,当呈现不准确的信息时,表现会降至基线水平以下。对于指令显示以及在不熟悉的结冰状况下,不准确信息的代价尤其高昂。我们的研究结果表明,除非可以假定决策辅助工具具有完美的可靠性,否则在高风险领域(如太空飞行、医学和过程控制),状态显示可能比指令显示更可取,因为前者能带来更稳健的性能优势,且似乎不易受到自动化偏差的影响。

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