Rotty R M
Environ Health Perspect. 1979 Dec;33:273-83. doi: 10.1289/ehp.7933273.
Accurate and regular measurements of the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere during the past 20 years show an accelerating increase. Although clearing of tropical forests has released large amounts of carbon to the atmosphere, evidence is strong that a major contributor is the combustion of fossil fuels. Future energy demands of the world will require extensive further exploitation of fossil fuels, and projections show that without major development of nonfossil fuel alternatives, the atmospheric concentration will double within the next 75 years. Four issues require serious attention. The developing countries will require vastly increased amounts of energy. Major efforts to develop suitable (inexpensive) nonfossil energy sources to meet at least a portion of this demand are required. The distribution of carbon released from fossil fuels and from other anthropogenic sources among the reservoirs of the carbon cycle must be better defined. Uncertainties regarding the effect of the increased concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere on global climate must be reduced. Possible political and social responses to a substantial climate change must be studied in order to more fully understand all of the implication of increased atmospheric CO2.
在过去20年里，对大气中二氧化碳浓度进行的精确且定期的测量显示其增长正在加速。尽管热带森林的砍伐向大气中释放了大量碳，但有力证据表明，主要贡献者是化石燃料的燃烧。世界未来的能源需求将需要对化石燃料进行进一步的广泛开采，并且预测显示，如果非化石燃料替代能源没有重大发展，大气浓度将在未来75年内翻倍。有四个问题需要认真关注。发展中国家将需要大幅增加能源量。必须做出重大努力来开发合适的（廉价的）非化石能源，以至少满足部分这一需求。必须更明确地界定化石燃料和其他人为来源释放的碳在碳循环各储存库中的分布。必须减少关于大气中二氧化碳浓度增加对全球气候影响的不确定性。必须研究针对大幅气候变化可能的政治和社会应对措施，以便更全面地理解大气中二氧化碳增加的所有影响。
