McCallum Hamish, Dobson Andy
Department of Zoology and Entomology, The University of Queensland, Brisbane 4072, Australia.
Proc Biol Sci. 2002 Oct 7;269(1504):2041-9. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2002.2079.
Habitat loss and the resultant fragmentation of remaining habitat is the primary cause of loss of biological diversity. How do these processes affect the dynamics of parasites and pathogens? Hess has provided some important insights into this problem using metapopulation models for pathogens that exhibit 'S-I' dynamics; for example, pathogens such as rabies in which the host population may be divided into susceptible and infected individuals. A major assumption of Hess's models is that infected patches become extinct, rather than recovering and becoming resistant to future infections. In this paper, we build upon this framework in two different ways: first, we examine the consequences of including patches that are resistant to infection; second, we examine the consequences of including a second species of host that can act as a reservoir for the pathogen. Both of these effects are likely to be important from a conservation perspective. The results of both sets of analysis indicate that the benefits of corridors and other connections that allow species to disperse through the landscape far outweigh the possible risks of increased pathogen transmission. Even in the commonest case, where harmful pathogens are maintained by a common reservoir host, increased landscape connectance still allows greater coexistence and persistence of a threatened or endangered host.
栖息地丧失以及剩余栖息地随之而来的碎片化是生物多样性丧失的主要原因。这些过程如何影响寄生虫和病原体的动态变化?赫斯利用表现出“S - I”动态的病原体集合种群模型,对这个问题提供了一些重要见解;例如,狂犬病等病原体,其宿主种群可分为易感个体和感染个体。赫斯模型的一个主要假设是,受感染的斑块会灭绝,而不是恢复并对未来感染产生抗性。在本文中,我们以两种不同方式在这个框架基础上展开研究:第一,我们研究纳入对感染具有抗性的斑块所产生的后果;第二,我们研究纳入第二种可作为病原体宿主库的宿主物种所产生的后果。从保护角度来看,这两种效应可能都很重要。两组分析结果均表明,允许物种在景观中扩散的廊道及其他连接所带来的益处,远远超过病原体传播增加的潜在风险。即使在最常见的情况下,即有害病原体由常见的宿主库宿主维持,景观连通性的增加仍能让受威胁或濒危宿主实现更大程度的共存和存续。