Niles John O, Brown Sandra, Pretty Jules, Ball Andrew S, Fay John
Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-3050, USA.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2002 Aug 15;360(1797):1621-39. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2002.1023.
The many opportunities for mitigating atmospheric carbon emissions in developing countries include reforesting degraded lands, implementing sustainable agricultural practices on existing lands and slowing tropical deforestation. This analysis shows that over the next 10 years, 48 major tropical and subtropical developing countries have the potential to reduce the atmospheric carbon burden by about 2.3 billion tonnes of carbon. Given a central price of $10 per tonne of carbon and a discount rate of 3%, this mitigation would generate a net present value of about $16.8 billion collectively for these countries. Achieving these potentials would require a significant global effort, covering more than 50 million hectares of land, to implement carbon-friendly practices in agriculture, forest and previously forested lands. These estimates of host-country income potentials do not consider that outside financial investment may or may not be available. Our calculations take no account of the additional benefits of carbon sequestration in forest soils undergoing reforestation, increased use of biomass and reduced use of fossil-fuel inputs and reduced agricultural emissions. In all events, realizing these incomes would necessitate substantially greater policy support and investment in sustainable land uses than is currently the case.
发展中国家减少大气碳排放的诸多机会包括对退化土地进行重新造林、在现有土地上实施可持续农业做法以及减缓热带森林砍伐。该分析表明，在未来10年里，48个主要热带和亚热带发展中国家有潜力将大气碳负担减少约23亿吨碳。假设每吨碳的核心价格为10美元，贴现率为3%，这种减排措施将为这些国家带来总计约168亿美元的净现值。要实现这些潜力需要全球做出重大努力，涉及超过5000万公顷土地，以便在农业、森林及以前的森林土地上实施碳友好型做法。这些东道国收入潜力的估计未考虑外部金融投资是否可得。我们的计算没有考虑重新造林的森林土壤中碳固存的额外益处、生物量使用增加、化石燃料投入使用减少以及农业排放减少等因素。无论如何，要实现这些收入，就需要比目前大幅增加对可持续土地利用的政策支持和投资。
