assistant professor, Department of Sociology, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA; and visiting researcher, MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa,
Int Perspect Sex Reprod Health. 2016 Dec 1;42(4):187-196. doi: 10.1363/42e2716.
In rural South Africa, women often delay union formation until they are in their late 20s, though premarital first births are common.
Longitudinal data from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System in rural South Africa were used to examine the relationship between premarital birth and union entry among 55,158 nonmigrant women aged 10-35 who took part in at least one annual census from 1993 to 2012. Discrete-time event history models were used to determine whether the likelihood of union formation differed between women who had had a premarital first birth and those who had not. Associations between single motherhood and union type (marriages or nonmarital partnerships) were identified using logistic regression.
Forty-five percent of women had had a premarital first birth and 25% had entered a first union. Women who had had a premarital first birth were less likely than other women to have entered a first union (odds ratio, 0.6). Women who had had a premarital birth in the past year were more likely than those without a premarital birth to have entered a union (1.5), but women had reduced odds of union formation if they had had a birth 1-2 years earlier (0.9) or at least five years earlier (0.8). Unions formed within two years of a premarital birth had an elevated likelihood of being nonmarital partnerships (1.2-1.4).
Single motherhood is common in the Agincourt HDSS, and women with a premarital first birth face challenges in establishing committed unions with partners.
在南非农村，尽管婚前初育很常见，但女性通常要到 20 多岁才会组建家庭。
本研究使用南非农村阿格诺特健康与社会人口动态监测系统的纵向数据，对至少参加过一次 1993 年至 2012 年年度普查的 55158 名 10-35 岁未婚女性的婚前生育与首次进入婚姻关系之间的关系进行了考察。离散时间事件历史模型用于确定婚前初育女性与未育女性组建家庭的可能性是否存在差异。采用逻辑回归确定单身母亲与婚姻类型（婚姻或非婚姻伴侣关系）之间的关联。
45%的女性有过婚前初育，25%的女性进入了第一次婚姻关系。与其他女性相比，有过婚前初育的女性更不可能进入首次婚姻关系（优势比，0.6）。过去一年有过婚前生育的女性比没有婚前生育的女性更有可能进入婚姻关系（1.5），但如果女性的生育时间早 1-2 年（0.9）或至少早 5 年（0.8），那么她们组建婚姻关系的可能性就会降低。在婚前生育后两年内组建的婚姻关系更有可能是非婚姻伴侣关系（1.2-1.4）。
在阿格诺特人口动态监测系统中，单身母亲现象很普遍，且有婚前初育的女性在与伴侣建立稳定婚姻关系上面临挑战。
