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登革热模型。

A model of dengue fever.

作者信息

Derouich M, Boutayeb A, Twizell E H

机构信息

Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Sciences, Mohamed I university, Oujda-Morocco.

出版信息

Biomed Eng Online. 2003 Feb 19;2:4. doi: 10.1186/1475-925x-2-4.

DOI:10.1186/1475-925x-2-4
PMID:12657162
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC153427/
Abstract

BACKGROUND: Dengue is a disease which is now endemic in more than 100 countries of Africa, America, Asia and the Western Pacific. It is transmitted to the man by mosquitoes (Aedes) and exists in two forms: Dengue Fever and Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever. The disease can be contracted by one of the four different viruses. Moreover, immunity is acquired only to the serotype contracted and a contact with a second serotype becomes more dangerous. METHODS: The present paper deals with a succession of two epidemics caused by two different viruses. The dynamics of the disease is studied by a compartmental model involving ordinary differential equations for the human and the mosquito populations. RESULTS: Stability of the equilibrium points is given and a simulation is carried out with different values of the parameters. The epidemic dynamics is discussed and illustration is given by figures for different values of the parameters. CONCLUSION: The proposed model allows for better understanding of the disease dynamics. Environment and vaccination strategies are discussed especially in the case of the succession of two epidemics with two different viruses.

摘要

背景：登革热是一种目前在非洲、美洲、亚洲和西太平洋100多个国家流行的疾病。它通过蚊子（伊蚊）传播给人类，有两种形式：登革热和登革出血热。该疾病可由四种不同病毒中的一种引起。此外，免疫力仅针对感染的血清型获得，接触第二种血清型会变得更加危险。 方法：本文研究了由两种不同病毒引起的连续两次疫情。通过一个涉及人类和蚊子种群常微分方程的 compartmental 模型来研究疾病的动态。 结果：给出了平衡点的稳定性，并对不同参数值进行了模拟。讨论了疫情动态，并用不同参数值的图表进行了说明。 结论：所提出的模型有助于更好地理解疾病动态。特别在两次不同病毒引起的连续疫情的情况下，讨论了环境和疫苗接种策略。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/eee2/153427/5cda6a003751/1475-925X-2-4-4.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/eee2/153427/8344997b44a7/1475-925X-2-4-1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/eee2/153427/31de456a1f4e/1475-925X-2-4-2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/eee2/153427/d62514feb430/1475-925X-2-4-3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/eee2/153427/5cda6a003751/1475-925X-2-4-4.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/eee2/153427/8344997b44a7/1475-925X-2-4-1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/eee2/153427/31de456a1f4e/1475-925X-2-4-2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/eee2/153427/d62514feb430/1475-925X-2-4-3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/eee2/153427/5cda6a003751/1475-925X-2-4-4.jpg

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[5]
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[9]
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[10]
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本文引用的文献

[1]
Analysis of a dengue disease transmission model.

Math Biosci. 1998-6-15

[2]
Competitive exclusion in a vector-host model for the dengue fever.

J Math Biol. 1997-5

[3]
A model of the transmission of dengue fever with an evaluation of the impact of ultra-low volume (ULV) insecticide applications on dengue epidemics.

Am J Trop Med Hyg. 1992-12

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