Hakama M, Räsänen-Virtanen U
Am J Epidemiol. 1976 May;103(5):512-7. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a112253.
In Finland, the organized mass screening program for the early detection of cervical cancer covers, with few exceptions, all women between the ages of 30 and 55 every fifth year. On the basis of material originating from the Finnish Cancer Registry it was estimated that the probability for a woman aged 30-59 to experience frankly invasive cervical cancer was 0.010 before the screening program, and 0.002 after the first screening. The corresponding probability estimate was 0.022 for pre-invasive lesions subjected to operative treatment. On the assumption that the same relationship applies beyond this age group it was estimated that from 28-39% of the pre-invasive cases progress to invasive cervical cancer, and that 21% of the frankly invasive cases are preceded by a pre-invasive stage of shorter duration than the time period between the screenings, or have no preclinical stage.
在芬兰，宫颈癌早期检测的有组织大规模筛查计划几乎覆盖了所有30至55岁的女性，每五年进行一次。根据芬兰癌症登记处提供的资料估计，在筛查计划实施前，30至59岁女性患明显浸润性宫颈癌的概率为0.010，首次筛查后为0.002。接受手术治疗的癌前病变的相应概率估计为0.022。假设这种关系适用于该年龄组以外的人群，据估计，28%至39%的癌前病例会发展为浸润性宫颈癌，21%的明显浸润性病例之前存在癌前阶段，其持续时间短于两次筛查之间的时间间隔，或者没有临床前期。
