Mostashari Farzad, Kulldorff Martin, Hartman Jessica J, Miller James R, Kulasekera Varuni
New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, New York 10013, USA.
Emerg Infect Dis. 2003 Jun;9(6):641-6. doi: 10.3201/eid0906.020794.
An early warning system for West Nile virus (WNV) outbreaks could provide a basis for targeted public education and surveillance activities as well as more timely larval and adult mosquito control. We adapted the spatial scan statistic for prospective detection of infectious disease outbreaks, applied the results to data on dead birds reported from New York City in 2000, and reviewed its utility in providing an early warning of WNV activity in 2001. Prospective geographic cluster analysis of dead bird reports may provide early warning of increasing viral activity in birds and mosquitoes, allowing jurisdictions to triage limited mosquito-collection and laboratory resources and more effectively prevent human disease caused by the virus. This adaptation of the scan statistic could also be useful in other infectious disease surveillance systems, including those for bioterrorism.
西尼罗河病毒（WNV）疫情早期预警系统可为有针对性的公众教育与监测活动以及更及时的幼虫和成虫蚊虫控制提供依据。我们采用空间扫描统计法对传染病疫情进行前瞻性检测，将结果应用于2000年纽约市上报的死鸟数据，并评估其在2001年WNV活动早期预警中的效用。对死鸟报告进行前瞻性地理聚类分析可能会为鸟类和蚊虫中病毒活动增加提供早期预警，使各辖区能够对有限的蚊虫采集和实验室资源进行分类管理，并更有效地预防该病毒引起的人类疾病。这种对扫描统计法的应用在其他传染病监测系统中也可能有用，包括生物恐怖主义监测系统。
