Duncombe William, Robbins Mark, Wolf Douglas A
Center for Policy Research, Syracuse University, New York, 13244-1090, USA.
J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci. 2003 Jul;58(4):S244-52. doi: 10.1093/geronb/58.4.s244.
We investigate the association between an extensive set of location-specific factors and the propensity of retirement-age individuals to remain in, or relocate to, those locations. In particular we investigate whether state and local fiscal factors influence the migration decisions of retirees, and we study the relative importance of fiscal and other factors in these decisions.
We place decisions regarding whether to move and where to locate in a single discrete-choice framework. We estimate an individual-level location-choice model by using a combination of place-characteristics data and Census county-to-county migration data for the period 1985-1990.
We find that levels of tax burdens and public services can affect location decisions. Of the fiscal variables, income taxes have the largest relative effects. However, other factors, including climate, economic conditions, and population characteristics, appear to play much larger roles in migration and location decisions.
Although income tax reductions might influence the location decisions of recent retirees, whether or not the economic benefits associated with these population gains outweigh the accompanying revenue losses is an important area for further research. A more cost-effective strategy may be for states to focus on marketing their amenities rather than using fiscal policy to recruit retirees.
我们研究一系列特定地点因素与退休年龄个体留在或迁移至这些地点的倾向之间的关联。特别是，我们研究州和地方财政因素是否会影响退休人员的迁移决策，并探讨财政因素和其他因素在这些决策中的相对重要性。
我们将关于是否迁移以及迁往何处的决策置于单一的离散选择框架中。我们使用1985 - 1990年期间的地方特征数据和人口普查县际迁移数据相结合的方式，估计个体层面的地点选择模型。
我们发现税收负担水平和公共服务会影响地点决策。在财政变量中，所得税的相对影响最大。然而，其他因素，包括气候、经济状况和人口特征，在迁移和地点决策中似乎发挥着更大的作用。
尽管降低所得税可能会影响近期退休人员的地点决策，但与这些人口增长相关的经济利益是否超过随之而来的收入损失，是一个有待进一步研究的重要领域。对各州来说，一种更具成本效益的策略可能是专注于宣传其便利设施，而不是利用财政政策来吸引退休人员。
