Kuhn Katrin Gaardbo, Campbell-Lendrum Diarmid H, Armstrong Ben, Davies Clive R
Disease Control and Vector Biology Unit, Department of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2003 Aug 19;100(17):9997-10001. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1233687100. Epub 2003 Aug 11.
There has been much recent speculation that global warming may allow the reestablishment of malaria transmission in previously endemic areas such as Europe and the United States. In this report we analyze temporal trends in malaria in Britain between 1840 and 1910, to assess the potential for reemergence of the disease. Our results demonstrate that at least 20% of the drop-off in malaria was due to increasing cattle population and decreasing acreage of marsh wetlands. Although both rainfall and average temperature were associated with year-to-year variability in death rates, there was no evidence for any association with the long-term malaria trend. Model simulations for future scenarios in Britain suggest that the change in temperature projected to occur by 2050 is likely to cause a proportional increase in local malaria transmission of 8-14%. The current risk is negligible, as >52,000 imported cases since 1953 have not led to any secondary cases. The projected increase in proportional risk is clearly insufficient to lead to the reestablishment of endemicity.
最近有很多猜测称，全球变暖可能会使疟疾在欧洲和美国等以前的流行地区重新传播。在本报告中，我们分析了1840年至1910年间英国疟疾的时间趋势，以评估该疾病再次出现的可能性。我们的结果表明，疟疾减少至少20%是由于牛群数量增加和沼泽湿地面积减少。虽然降雨量和平均温度都与死亡率的逐年变化有关，但没有证据表明与长期疟疾趋势有任何关联。对英国未来情景的模型模拟表明，预计到2050年发生的温度变化可能会导致当地疟疾传播成比例增加8-14%。目前的风险可以忽略不计，因为自1953年以来超过52,000例输入病例并未导致任何二代病例。预计成比例风险的增加显然不足以导致疟疾流行的重新建立。
