天花疫苗接种政策中的群体利益与个人利益
Group interest versus self-interest in smallpox vaccination policy.
作者信息
Bauch Chris T, Galvani Alison P, Earn David J D
机构信息
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada L8S 4K1.
出版信息
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2003 Sep 2;100(18):10564-7. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1731324100. Epub 2003 Aug 14.
Abstract
The recent threat of bioterrorism has fueled debate on smallpox vaccination policy for the United States. Certain policy proposals call for voluntary mass vaccination; however, if individuals decide whether to vaccinate according to self-interest, the level of herd immunity achieved may differ from what is best for the population as a whole. We present a synthesis of game theory and epidemic modeling that formalizes this conflict between self-interest and group interest and shows that voluntary vaccination is unlikely to reach the group-optimal level. This shortfall results in a substantial increase in expected mortality after an attack.
摘要
近期生物恐怖主义的威胁引发了美国关于天花疫苗接种政策的争论。某些政策提议呼吁进行自愿大规模接种；然而，如果个人根据自身利益决定是否接种，所实现的群体免疫水平可能与对整个人口最有利的水平有所不同。我们提出了一种博弈论与流行病建模的综合方法，将这种自身利益与群体利益之间的冲突形式化，并表明自愿接种不太可能达到群体最优水平。这种不足导致袭击后预期死亡率大幅上升。
相似文献
1
Group interest versus self-interest in smallpox vaccination policy.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2003 Sep 2;100(18):10564-7. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1731324100. Epub 2003 Aug 14.
2
Game theory of pre-emptive vaccination before bioterrorism or accidental release of smallpox.
J R Soc Interface. 2015 Jun 6;12(107). doi: 10.1098/rsif.2014.1387.
3
Smallpox vaccine policy: the national debate.
Physician Exec. 2002 Sep-Oct;28(5):64-6.
4
A model for a smallpox-vaccination policy.
N Engl J Med. 2003 Jan 30;348(5):416-25. doi: 10.1056/NEJMsa025075. Epub 2002 Dec 19.
5
Ring vaccination versus mass vaccination in event of a smallpox attack.
Hawaii Med J. 2005 Feb;64(2):34-6, 53.
6
The case for voluntary smallpox vaccination.
N Engl J Med. 2002 Apr 25;346(17):1323-5. doi: 10.1056/NEJM200204253461713. Epub 2002 Mar 28.
7
Expected adverse events in a mass smallpox vaccination campaign.
Eff Clin Pract. 2002 Mar-Apr;5(2):84-90.
8
Smallpox vaccination policy--the need for dialogue.
N Engl J Med. 2002 Apr 25;346(17):1319-20. doi: 10.1056/NEJM200204253461711. Epub 2002 Mar 28.
9
[Resume smallpox vaccination?].
Recenti Prog Med. 2002 Sep;93(9):455-6.
10
Smallpox vaccination policy: Part II-Preparedness begins.
Physician Exec. 2003 Mar-Apr;29(2):61-3.
引用本文的文献
1
Cognitively-plausible reinforcement learning in epidemiological agent-based simulations.
Front Epidemiol. 2025 Jul 28;5:1563731. doi: 10.3389/fepid.2025.1563731. eCollection 2025.
2
Adaptive human behavior and delays in information availability autonomously modulate epidemic waves.
PNAS Nexus. 2025 May 27;4(5):pgaf145. doi: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgaf145. eCollection 2025 May.
3
Understanding Nash epidemics.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2025 Mar 4;122(9):e2409362122. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2409362122. Epub 2025 Feb 27.
4
Investigating the impact of environmental feedback on the optional prisoner's dilemma for insights into cyclic dominance and evolution of cooperation.
R Soc Open Sci. 2024 Oct 23;11(10):240717. doi: 10.1098/rsos.240717. eCollection 2024 Oct.
5
Rational social distancing policy during epidemics with limited healthcare capacity.
PLoS Comput Biol. 2023 Oct 16;19(10):e1011533. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011533. eCollection 2023 Oct.
6
Modeling opinion polarization on social media: Application to Covid-19 vaccination hesitancy in Italy.
PLoS One. 2023 Oct 2;18(10):e0291993. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0291993. eCollection 2023.
7
Rational social distancing in epidemics with uncertain vaccination timing.
PLoS One. 2023 Jul 21;18(7):e0288963. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0288963. eCollection 2023.
8
Vaccine-hesitant people misperceive the social norm of vaccination.
PNAS Nexus. 2023 Apr 15;2(5):pgad132. doi: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad132. eCollection 2023 May.
9
The impact of threshold decision mechanisms of collective behavior on disease spread.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2023 May 9;120(19):e2221479120. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2221479120. Epub 2023 May 1.
10
Generic catastrophic poverty when selfish investors exploit a degradable common resource.
R Soc Open Sci. 2023 Feb 8;10(2):221234. doi: 10.1098/rsos.221234. eCollection 2023 Feb.
本文引用的文献
1
A model for a smallpox-vaccination policy.
N Engl J Med. 2003 Jan 30;348(5):416-25. doi: 10.1056/NEJMsa025075. Epub 2002 Dec 19.
2
Public health. Rough-and-tumble behind Bush's smallpox policy.
Science. 2002 Dec 20;298(5602):2312-6. doi: 10.1126/science.298.5602.2312.
3
Containing bioterrorist smallpox.
Science. 2002 Nov 15;298(5597):1428-32. doi: 10.1126/science.1074674.
4
The smallpox vaccine debate.
Am J Nurs. 2002 Sep;102(9):33-8; quiz 38-9. doi: 10.1097/00000446-200209000-00032.
5
Emergency response to a smallpox attack: the case for mass vaccination.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2002 Aug 6;99(16):10935-40. doi: 10.1073/pnas.162282799. Epub 2002 Jul 12.
6
The case for voluntary smallpox vaccination.
N Engl J Med. 2002 Apr 25;346(17):1323-5. doi: 10.1056/NEJM200204253461713. Epub 2002 Mar 28.
7
Transmission potential of smallpox in contemporary populations.
Nature. 2001 Dec 13;414(6865):748-51. doi: 10.1038/414748a.
8
'They might as well brand us': working-class resistance to compulsory vaccination in Victorian England.
Soc Hist Med. 2000 Apr;13(1):45-62. doi: 10.1093/shm/13.1.45.
9
The last smallpox epidemic in Boston and the vaccination controversy, 1901-1903.
N Engl J Med. 2001 Feb 1;344(5):375-9. doi: 10.1056/NEJM200102013440511.
10
Public doubts about vaccination safety and resistance against vaccination.
Health Policy. 2001 Mar;55(3):159-72. doi: 10.1016/s0168-8510(00)00132-9.
Zotero 插件