Ades A E
Epidemiology and Biostatistics Unit, Institute of Child Health, London.
Epidemiol Infect. 1992 Apr;108(2):367-75. doi: 10.1017/s0950268800049839.
Accurate incidence information is required to plan and evaluate screening programmes which have been proposed for the detection of primary toxoplasmosis and cytomegalovirus infection in pregnancy. Appropriate statistical methods are described for deriving incidence rates and their confidence intervals from three types of data: change in age-specific seroprevalence, seroconversion, and IgM studies. These methods are applied to seven published studies on toxoplasmosis and cytomegalovirus carried out in the UK. In these publications only one estimate of the infection rate per pregnancy was correctly derived, and none were accompanied by confidence intervals. Using the proposed methods, most estimates of the primary toxoplasmosis rate in these studies were between 2.5 and 5.5 per 1000 pregnancies, compared to the 2 per 1000 usually cited. Most cytomegalovirus incidence estimates were between 4 and 10 per 1000 pregnancies.
为了规划和评估已提议用于检测孕期原发性弓形虫病和巨细胞病毒感染的筛查项目，需要准确的发病率信息。本文描述了从三种类型的数据中得出发病率及其置信区间的适当统计方法：特定年龄血清阳性率的变化、血清转化和IgM研究。这些方法应用于英国进行的七项关于弓形虫病和巨细胞病毒的已发表研究。在这些出版物中，每孕期感染率的估计只有一个是正确得出的，且均未附带置信区间。使用所提议的方法，这些研究中大多数原发性弓形虫病发病率的估计值在每1000次怀孕2.5至5.5例之间，而通常引用的数字是每1000例2例。大多数巨细胞病毒发病率估计值在每1000次怀孕4至10例之间。
