Harjulehto-Mervaala T, Salonen R, Aro T, Saxén L
Department of Pathology, University of Helsinki, Finland.
Mutat Res. 1992 Mar;275(2):81-6. doi: 10.1016/0921-8734(92)90011-d.
Our objective was to explore whether the radiation fallout in Finland after the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in April 1986 led to an increased incidence of trisomy 21. In this geographic and temporal cohort study, the country was divided into three zones according to the amounts of radioactive fallout and internal radiation caused by two cesium isotopes. The 518 cytologically verified cases of trisomy 21 were divided into a control group (conceived before the accident), and a study group of children whose expected dates of birth were in the post-accident years 1987-1988, i.e., pregnancies commenced after May 1986. The cases were also divided into three subgroups according to the zones of radiation. There were no significant differences in prevalence of trisomy 21 between the control and study groups nor between the three zones in spite of the significant differences in the levels of radiation and in the body burden that prevailed throughout the study period. Power estimates showed that in the two zones of lower radiation, an increase of 0.5% in the prevalence would have been detected with a power of 0.85, and in the somewhat smaller zone of the highest radiation, with a power of 0.70. The study lends no further support to the view that the low radiation fallout in western Europe would have been causally associated with trisomy 21.
我们的目的是探讨1986年4月切尔诺贝利核电站事故后芬兰的放射性沉降物是否导致21三体综合征的发病率增加。在这项地理和时间队列研究中，根据两种铯同位素造成的放射性沉降物和体内辐射量，将该国分为三个区域。518例经细胞学证实的21三体综合征病例被分为一个对照组（事故前受孕）和一个研究组，研究组儿童的预期出生日期在事故后的1987 - 1988年，即1986年5月之后开始的妊娠。这些病例还根据辐射区域分为三个亚组。尽管在整个研究期间辐射水平和体内负荷存在显著差异，但对照组和研究组之间以及三个区域之间21三体综合征的患病率没有显著差异。功效估计表明，在辐射较低的两个区域，患病率增加0.5%时，功效为0.85时能够检测到；在辐射最高的较小区域，功效为0.70时能够检测到。该研究没有进一步支持西欧低放射性沉降物与21三体综合征存在因果关系这一观点。
