Epidemiology of malignant melanoma in central Europe: risk factors and prognostic predictors. Results of the Central Malignant Melanoma Registry of the German Dermatological Society.

The Central Malignant Melanoma Registry (CMMR) of the German Dermatological Society was established in 1983, and 7789 cutaneous malignant melanomas (CMM) were registered by 35 dermatological departments in Germany, Austria and Switzerland until the end of 1989. Population-based incidence rates, risk factors for developing CMM and prognostic parameters for predicting the final outcome were investigated in separate multicenter studies performed by the CMMR. Among the 7789 CMM registered, there was a preponderance of females (57.7%) versus males (42.3%). The age distribution peaked in the 5th and 6th decade of life for both sexes with a mean age of 52 years. The mean detection age was 50 years for superficial spreading melanoma, 53 for nodular melanoma, and 65 for lentigo maligna melanoma. Mean tumor thickness decreased from 2 mm in 1983 to 1.5 mm in 1989, indicating better CMM-awareness of the population and the medical community in this area. 90% of the patients presented with clinical stage I CMM without detectable metastases at first diagnosis. The incidence of CMM in Berlin (West) was assessed based on 960 cases diagnosed between 1980 and 1986. The incidence increased by 49% between 1980-81 and 1985-86, and the age standardized-incidence rate (European standard population) was 9.8 for males and 7.8 for females per 100,000 inhabitants and year in 1985-86. Mortality rates decreased in this period from 3.5 to 2.6 for males and slightly increased for females from 1.2 to 1.6 per 100,000 inhabitants and year. A case control study on the relative risk (RR) for developing CMM revealed the total number of melanocytic nevi (MCN) to be the strongest risk predictor (15x -50x increased RR), followed by the presence of dysplastic MCN (7x increased RR) and the skin type I (2x increased RR). Interestingly, no differences between CMM-cases and controls were found with respect to the history of sunburns or other parameters of sun exposure in this study. Multivariate analysis of 5093 stage I CMM-patients from four departments with long-term follow-up revealed that tumor thickness is the strongest predictor of survival with an almost linear correlation to the risk of death for tumor thickness up to 6 mm with no further increase in mortality for higher tumor thickness. The best classification of tumor thickness for survival prediction was less than or equal to 1 mm, 1.01-2 mm, 2.01-4 mm and greater than 4 mm in our data set on 5093 patients.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)