Cooper C, Campion G, Melton L J
Department of Health Sciences Research, Mayo Clinic and Foundation, Rochester, Minnesota 55905.
Osteoporos Int. 1992 Nov;2(6):285-9. doi: 10.1007/BF01623184.
Hip fractures are recognized to be a major public health problem in many Western nations, most notably those in North America, Europe and Oceania. Incidence rates for hip fracture in other parts of the world are generally lower than those reported for these predominantly Caucasian populations, and this has led to the belief that osteoporosis represents less of a problem to the nations of Asia, South American and Africa. Demographic changes in the next 60 years, however, will lead to huge increases in the elderly populations of those countries. We have applied available incidence rates for hip fracture from various parts of the world to projected populations in 1990, 2025 and 2050 in order to estimate the numbers of hip fractures which might occur in each of the major continental regions. The projections indicate that the number of hip fractures occurring in the world each year will rise from 1.66 million in 1990 to 6.26 million by 2050. While Europe and North America account for about half of all hip fractures among elderly people today, this proportion will fall to around one quarter in 2050, by which time steep increases will be observed throughout Asia and Latin America. The results suggest that osteoporosis will truly become a global problem over the next half century, and that preventive strategies will be required in parts of the world where they are not currently felt to be necessary.
髋部骨折被认为是许多西方国家的一个主要公共卫生问题，在北美、欧洲和大洋洲的国家尤为明显。世界其他地区的髋部骨折发病率通常低于这些以白种人为主的人群所报告的发病率，这使得人们认为骨质疏松症在亚洲、南美洲和非洲国家不是那么严重的问题。然而，未来60年的人口结构变化将导致这些国家老年人口大幅增加。我们将世界各地区髋部骨折的现有发病率应用于1990年、2025年和2050年的预测人口，以估计每个主要大陆地区可能发生的髋部骨折数量。预测表明，世界每年发生的髋部骨折数量将从1990年的166万例增加到2050年的626万例。虽然欧洲和北美目前约占老年髋部骨折总数的一半，但到2050年这一比例将降至约四分之一，届时亚洲和拉丁美洲将出现大幅增长。结果表明，在接下来的半个世纪里，骨质疏松症将真正成为一个全球性问题，在目前认为没有必要的世界部分地区将需要采取预防策略。
