Kent Richard, Funk Jim, Crandall Jeff
Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia 22902, USA.
Traffic Inj Prev. 2003 Mar;4(1):24-32. doi: 10.1080/15389580309854.
The objective of this study was to quantify the importance of societal aging relative to other factors that are known to affect injury risk. An aging population's effect on Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale (MAIS) 3+ injury trends for passenger car drivers in frontal crashes was projected and compared to the effects of projected changes in fleet composition, changes in seat belt usage, and changes in air bag availability. It was determined that increased frailty due to an aging population will result in 19,816 to 43,568 additional injuries to passenger car drivers in frontal crashes from 1996 to 2012. Aging was shown to have an effect similar to the increased presence of light trucks in the fleet (a cumulative increase of approximately 47,428 injuries). Aging and changing fleet composition were shown to have a smaller effect than the projected increases in seat belt use or air bag availability, though the effect of increased belt use is not much greater than the effect of aging. After 2012, however, air bag availability and seat belt use will plateau, while societal aging will continue.
本研究的目的是量化社会老龄化相对于其他已知会影响受伤风险的因素的重要性。预测了老龄化人口对正面碰撞中乘用车驾驶员的最大简略损伤量表（MAIS）3级及以上损伤趋势的影响，并与车队组成的预测变化、安全带使用情况的变化以及安全气囊配备情况的变化所产生的影响进行了比较。研究确定，从1996年到2012年，由于人口老龄化导致的身体虚弱加剧，将使正面碰撞中的乘用车驾驶员额外增加19,816至43,568例损伤。研究表明，老龄化的影响与车队中轻型卡车数量增加的影响类似（累计增加约47,428例损伤）。尽管安全带使用增加的影响比老龄化的影响大不了多少，但研究表明，老龄化和车队组成的变化所产生的影响小于安全带使用或安全气囊配备情况的预测增加所产生的影响。然而，2012年之后，安全气囊配备情况和安全带使用将趋于平稳，而社会老龄化将继续。
