Hanrahan Robert B, Layde Peter M, Zhu Shankuan, Guse Clare E, Hargarten Stephen W
Injury Research Center, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53226-0509, USA.
Traffic Inj Prev. 2009 Aug;10(4):361-7. doi: 10.1080/15389580902973635.
To quantify the association of driver's age with the risk of being injured, dying, and experiencing injuries of different severity when involved in a motor vehicle crash.
Data from the Wisconsin Crash Outcome Data Evaluation System (CODES) from 2002 to 2004 were used to study 602,964 drivers of a car or truck who were involved in a motor vehicle crash. Odds ratios (OR) or relative risk ratios (RRR) and their 95 percent confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for age groups, in relation to the outcomes of injury, fatality, and injury severity using logistic regression models, which controlled for sex, alcohol use, urban/rural location, seat belt use, ejection, airbag deployment, vehicle type, and highway class.
Increasing age was strongly associated the risk of dying or experiencing severe injuries for drivers involved in motor vehicle crashes with the greatest risk in drivers 85 years and older. Compared to drivers aged 25-44, drivers 85 years and older had the highest risks for moderate injury (ISS = 9-15; RRR = 5.44, 95% CI: 3.97-7.47), severe injury (ISS = 16-74; (RRR = 4.32, 95% CI: 2.73-6.84), and fatality (OR = 10.93, 95% CI: 7.76-15.38). In contrast, drivers 85 years and older had no increase in risk for minor injury (ISS = 1-8; OR = 0.94, 95% CI: 0.84-1.05).
The oldest drivers involved in motor vehicle crashes had the highest risk for severe injury and fatality. In light of the increasing number of the oldest drivers and their poor outcomes from severe trauma, substantial morbidity can be expected to occur in the oldest drivers. Evidence-based measures to reduce the risks to older drivers should continue to be developed, evaluated, and implemented.
量化机动车碰撞事故中驾驶员年龄与受伤、死亡以及不同严重程度受伤风险之间的关联。
利用2002年至2004年威斯康星州碰撞事故结果数据评估系统（CODES）的数据，研究602,964名涉及机动车碰撞事故的汽车或卡车驾驶员。使用逻辑回归模型计算各年龄组与受伤、死亡及损伤严重程度结果相关的比值比（OR）或相对风险比（RRR）及其95%置信区间（CI），该模型控制了性别、酒精使用情况、城乡位置、安全带使用情况、弹射情况、安全气囊展开情况、车辆类型和公路等级。
年龄增长与机动车碰撞事故中驾驶员死亡或遭受重伤的风险密切相关，85岁及以上驾驶员风险最高。与25至44岁的驾驶员相比，85岁及以上驾驶员中度损伤（损伤严重度评分[ISS]=9 - 15；RRR = 5.44，95% CI：3.97 - 7.47）、重伤（ISS = 16 - 74；RRR = 4.32，95% CI：2.73 - 6.84）和死亡（OR = 10.93，95% CI：7.76 - 15.38）的风险最高。相比之下，85岁及以上驾驶员轻伤（ISS = 1 - 8；OR = 0.94，95% CI：0.84 - 1.05）风险并未增加。
涉及机动车碰撞事故的高龄驾驶员重伤和死亡风险最高。鉴于高龄驾驶员数量不断增加且严重创伤预后不佳，预计高龄驾驶员会出现大量发病情况。应继续制定、评估和实施基于证据的措施以降低高龄驾驶员的风险。
