Thall Peter F, Millikan Randall E, Mueller Peter, Lee Sang-Joon
Department of Biostatistics, Box 447, University of Texas, M. D. Anderson Cancer Center, 1515 Holcombe Blvd., Houston, Texas 77030, USA.
Biometrics. 2003 Sep;59(3):487-96. doi: 10.1111/1541-0420.00058.
We propose an adaptive two-stage Bayesian design for finding one or more acceptable dose combinations of two cytotoxic agents used together in a Phase I clinical trial. The method requires that each of the two agents has been studied previously as a single agent, which is almost invariably the case in practice. A parametric model is assumed for the probability of toxicity as a function of the two doses. Informative priors for parameters characterizing the single-agent toxicity probability curves are either elicited from the physician(s) planning the trial or obtained from historical data, and vague priors are assumed for parameters characterizing two-agent interactions. A method for eliciting the single-agent parameter priors is described. The design is applied to a trial of gemcitabine and cyclophosphamide, and a simulation study is presented.
我们提出了一种自适应两阶段贝叶斯设计,用于在I期临床试验中寻找两种细胞毒性药物联合使用时的一种或多种可接受剂量组合。该方法要求两种药物中的每一种之前都已作为单一药物进行过研究,在实际中几乎总是如此。假设毒性概率作为两种剂量的函数有一个参数模型。表征单药毒性概率曲线的参数的信息先验要么由计划试验的医生引出,要么从历史数据中获得,而表征两药相互作用的参数则假设为模糊先验。描述了一种引出单药参数先验的方法。该设计应用于吉西他滨和环磷酰胺的试验,并给出了模拟研究。