Jenkins Martin
United Nations Environment Programme-World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219c Huntingdon Road, Cambridge, CB3 ODL, UK.
Science. 2003 Nov 14;302(5648):1175-7. doi: 10.1126/science.1088666.
Assuming no radical transformation in human behavior, we can expect important changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services by 2050. A considerable number of species extinctions will have taken place. Existing large blocks of tropical forest will be much reduced and fragmented, but temperate forests and some tropical forests will be stable or increasing in area, although the latter will be biotically impoverished. Marine ecosystems will be very different from today's, with few large marine predators, and freshwater biodiversity will be severely reduced almost everywhere. These changes will not, in themselves, threaten the survival of humans as a species.
假设人类行为没有发生根本性转变，到2050年，我们可以预期生物多样性和生态系统服务会发生重大变化。将会有相当数量的物种灭绝。现有的大片热带森林面积将大幅减少并碎片化，但温带森林和一些热带森林面积将保持稳定或有所增加，尽管后者的生物多样性会有所减少。海洋生态系统将与如今大不相同，大型海洋捕食者寥寥无几，几乎在所有地方淡水生物多样性都将严重减少。这些变化本身不会威胁到人类作为一个物种的生存。
