Ulfarsson Gudmundur F, Mannering Fred L
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-2700, USA.
Accid Anal Prev. 2004 Mar;36(2):135-47. doi: 10.1016/s0001-4575(02)00135-5.
This research explores differences in injury severity between male and female drivers in single and two-vehicle accidents involving passenger cars, pickups, sport-utility vehicles (SUVs), and minivans. Separate multivariate multinomial logit models of injury severity are estimated for male and female drivers. The models predict the probability of four injury severity outcomes: no injury (property damage only), possible injury, evident injury, and fatal/disabling injury. The models are conditioned on driver gender and the number and type of vehicles involved in the accident. The conditional structure avoids bias caused by men and women's different reporting rates, choices of vehicle type, and their different rates of participation as drivers, which would affect a joint model of all crashes. We found variables that have opposite effects for the genders, such as striking a barrier or a guardrail, and crashing while starting a vehicle. The results suggest there are important behavioral and physiological differences between male and female drivers that must be explored further and addressed in vehicle and roadway design.
本研究探讨了在涉及乘用车、皮卡、运动型多用途汽车(SUV)和小型货车的单车及两车事故中,男性和女性驾驶员受伤严重程度的差异。针对男性和女性驾驶员分别估计了伤害严重程度的多元多项logit模型。这些模型预测了四种伤害严重程度结果的概率:无伤害(仅财产损失)、可能受伤、明显受伤以及致命/致残伤害。模型以驾驶员性别以及事故中涉及的车辆数量和类型为条件。这种条件结构避免了因男性和女性不同的报告率、车辆类型选择以及他们不同的驾驶参与率所导致的偏差,而这些因素会影响所有碰撞事故的联合模型。我们发现了一些对不同性别有相反影响的变量,比如撞上障碍物或护栏,以及在启动车辆时发生碰撞。结果表明,男性和女性驾驶员之间存在重要的行为和生理差异,必须进一步探索并在车辆和道路设计中加以考虑。