Bowles Kathy H, Holmes John H, Naylor Mary D, Liberatore Matthew, Nydick Robert
University of Pennsylvania School of Nursing, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
AMIA Annu Symp Proc. 2003;2003:106-9.
This paper describes the results of using a modified Delphi approach designed to achieve consensus from eight discharge planning experts regarding the decision to refer hospitalized older adults for post-discharge follow-up. Experts reviewed 150 cases using an online website designed to facilitate their interaction and efforts to reach agreement on the need for a referral for post-discharge care and the appropriate site for such care. In contrast to an average of eight weeks to complete just 50 cases using the traditional mail method, the first online Delphi round for 150 cases were completed in six weeks. Data provided by experts suggest that online Delphi is a time efficient and acceptable methodology for reaching group consensus. Other benefits include instant access to Delphi decision results, live knowledge of the time requirements and progress of each expert, and cost savings in postage, paper, copying, and storage of paper documents. This online Delphi methodology is highly recommended.
本文描述了采用一种改良的德尔菲法的结果，该方法旨在就将住院老年人转诊至出院后随访事宜，达成八位出院计划专家的共识。专家们使用一个在线网站对150个病例进行了评估，该网站旨在促进他们的互动，并努力就出院后护理转诊的必要性以及此类护理的合适地点达成一致。与使用传统邮寄方法平均需要八周才能完成仅50个病例相比，150个病例的第一轮在线德尔菲法在六周内就完成了。专家提供的数据表明，在线德尔菲法是达成群体共识的一种省时且可接受的方法。其他好处包括即时获取德尔菲法决策结果、实时了解每位专家的时间要求和进展情况，以及节省邮资、纸张、复印和纸质文件存储成本。强烈推荐这种在线德尔菲法。
